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To tip or not to tip: The Window of Tipping Point Analysis for social-ecological systems
Natural Resource Modeling ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-04 , DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12357
Marie‐Catherine Riekhof 1 , Lotta Clara Kluger 1 , Renato Salvatteci 1, 2 , Lotta Siebert 1 , Rudi Voss 1, 3
Affiliation  

We introduce six steps to define a “Window of Tipping Point Analysis” which serves as a framework to increase the understanding of processes and tipping points in social-ecological systems. We apply the Window of Tipping Point Analysis to a mathematical model and two case studies (i.e., Baltic Sea and the Humboldt Current Upwelling system), focusing on three aspects. In “to tip or be tipped” we look at agency in preventing (or driving) tipping. In “to be tipped or not to be tipped” we discuss intertemporal developments and chosen time periods for delineating regime shifts. In “to tip or not to tip” we discuss the desirability of states and their relation to the elements included. We argue that agency in tipping-point management, the occurrence of tipping points, and desirable states depend on the window chosen for the analysis.

中文翻译:

给或不给小费:社会生态系统的临界点分析之窗

我们引入了六个步骤来定义一个“临界点分析窗口”,作为一个框架,以增加对社会生态系统过程和临界点的理解。我们将临界点分析窗口应用于一个数学模型和两个案例研究(即波罗的海和洪堡海流上升流系统),重点关注三个方面。在“给小费或被给小费”中,我们着眼于防止(或推动)给小费的机构。在“给小费或不给小费”中,我们讨论了跨期发展和为描绘政权转变而选择的时间段。在“给小费或不给小费”中,我们讨论了状态的可取性及其与所包含元素的关系。我们认为,临界点管理中的代理、临界点的发生和理想状态取决于为分析选择的窗口。
更新日期:2022-09-04
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