A sufficient database of measured flyrock ranges produced by blasting at a particular site can be used to determine the probability that flyrock will exceed any prescribed range. Such a probabilistic analysis is given for data from 6 sites (surface mines and quarries). A flyrock model based on two-dimensional (2D) ballistics, incorporating the site-specific blast designs, is also used to predict a set of flyrock ranges for each site. It is shown that the exceedence probabilities of the modelled ranges are consistent with those determined for the measured ranges. The model uses flyrock fragments having a random launch angle and size; it also uses various fragment shapes whose lift and drag forces in flight are based on wind tunnel experiments. Mines often face a problem of setting rational exclusion zones for flyrock generated at different working levels due to impact with pit walls. Thus a pseudo-3D version of the model was constructed in which the radial direction was continually rotated to span the 3D space of a pit surface. This model showed a significant restriction in flyrock range due to pit walls; it also showed a strong influence due to the shape of the flyrock fragments, suggesting a possible mechanism for wild flyrock. A fully 3D model was also constructed for spherical fragments, and showed that the influence of a prevailing wind as well as surface topography is not inconsequential to flyrock risk assessment. The 3D model has application for the protection of Heritage Sites from flyrock impact.

通过在特定地点爆破产生的测量飞石范围的充分数据库可用于确定飞石超过任何规定范围的概率。对来自 6 个地点（露天矿山和采石场）的数据进行了这种概率分析。基于二维 (2D) 弹道学的飞石模型，结合了场地特定的爆炸设计，也用于预测每个场地的一组飞石范围。结果表明，建模范围的超出概率与为测量范围确定的超出概率一致。该模型使用具有随机发射角度和大小的飞石碎片；它还使用各种碎片形状，其飞行中的升力和阻力基于风洞实验。矿山由于与坑壁的影响，经常面临在不同工作层面产生的飞石设置合理禁区的问题。因此，构建了模型的伪 3D 版本，其中径向方向不断旋转以跨越坑表面的 3D 空间。由于坑壁，该模型显示了飞石范围的显着限制；由于飞石碎片的形状，它也显示出强烈的影响，这表明野生飞石的可能机制。还为球形碎片构建了一个完整的 3D 模型，并表明盛行风和地表地形的影响对于飞石风险评估并非无关紧要。3D 模型可用于保护遗产地免受飞石撞击。因此，构建了模型的伪 3D 版本，其中径向方向不断旋转以跨越坑表面的 3D 空间。由于坑壁，该模型显示了飞石范围的显着限制；由于飞石碎片的形状，它也显示出强烈的影响，这表明野生飞石的可能机制。还为球形碎片构建了一个完整的 3D 模型，并表明盛行风和地表地形的影响对于飞石风险评估并非无关紧要。3D 模型可用于保护遗产地免受飞石撞击。因此，构建了模型的伪 3D 版本，其中径向方向不断旋转以跨越坑表面的 3D 空间。由于坑壁，该模型显示了飞石范围的显着限制；由于飞石碎片的形状，它也显示出强烈的影响，这表明野生飞石的可能机制。还为球形碎片构建了一个完整的 3D 模型，并表明盛行风和地表地形的影响对于飞石风险评估并非无关紧要。3D 模型可用于保护遗产地免受飞石撞击。由于飞石碎片的形状，它也显示出强烈的影响，这表明野生飞石的可能机制。还为球形碎片构建了一个完整的 3D 模型，并表明盛行风和地表地形的影响对于飞石风险评估并非无关紧要。3D 模型可用于保护遗产地免受飞石撞击。由于飞石碎片的形状，它也显示出强烈的影响，这表明野生飞石的可能机制。还为球形碎片构建了一个完整的 3D 模型，并表明盛行风和地表地形的影响对于飞石风险评估并非无关紧要。3D 模型可用于保护遗产地免受飞石撞击。