Do armed drone programs decrease or increase terrorism? Existing studies on this question produce conflicting arguments and evidence. Drone optimists contend that armed drones reduce a country's vulnerability to terrorism, while pessimists claim that this military technology provokes higher levels of terrorism. Prior research focuses almost exclusively on one particular context: the short-term effect of the US drone program in Pakistan. However, armed drones have proliferated rapidly over the last decade and eighteen countries now possess this technology. We expand the scope of prior studies by leveraging new data to assess how obtaining armed drones and conducting drone strikes changed the degree to which all drone possessors experienced terrorism between 2001 and 2019. Employing a variety of estimation strategies, including two-way fixed effects, we find that armed drone programs are associated with significant reductions in terrorism. Our analysis, based on the full universe of cases over an eighteen-year period, provides further evidence that drones can be effective as a counterterrorism tool in some cases.

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武装无人机能反恐还是适得其反？来自十八个国家的证据

武装无人机计划会减少还是增加恐怖主义？关于这个问题的现有研究产生了相互矛盾的论点和证据。无人机乐观主义者认为武装无人机降低了一个国家对恐怖主义的脆弱性，而悲观主义者则声称这种军事技术会引发更高水平的恐怖主义。先前的研究几乎只关注一个特定的背景：美国无人机计划在巴基斯坦的短期影响。然而，武装无人机在过去十年中迅速普及，现在有 18 个国家拥有这项技术。我们通过利用新数据来评估获得武装无人机和进行无人机袭击如何改变了 2001 年至 2019 年间所有无人机拥有者经历恐怖主义的程度，从而扩大了先前研究的范围。采用各种估计策略，包括双向固定效应，我们发现武装无人机计划与恐怖主义的显着减少有关。我们的分析基于 18 年期间的全部案例，进一步证明无人机在某些情况下可以有效地作为反恐工具。