Over the past decade, a growing literature has re-examined the relationship between material scarcity and conflict. Despite increasing policy salience and empirical interest, coherent theoretical accounts remain underdeveloped. This article develops microfoundations for a first-image rationalist explanation for war. It is shown that the basic physiological fact of necessary consumption induces context conditional risk preference, a feature that coherently explains empirical patterns of conflict. When applied to higher levels of analysis, the basic mechanism explains additional patterns such as the association between power preponderance and conflict and the oversized demands made by weak actors.

中文翻译：

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物质稀缺、死亡率和暴力冲突

在过去十年中，越来越多的文献重新审视了物质稀缺与冲突之间的关系。尽管政策重要性和经验兴趣日益增加，但连贯的理论解释仍然不发达。本文为战争的第一形象理性主义解释奠定了微观基础。结果表明，必要消费的基本生理事实导致了情境条件风险偏好，这一特征连贯地解释了冲突的经验模式。当应用于更高层次的分析时，基本机制解释了其他模式，例如权力优势与冲突之间的关联以及弱者提出的过大要求。