Accurate forecasts of the properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) prior to their arrival at Earth are unquestionably a key goal for space weather. Currently, there are several promising techniques for accomplishing this, including the more focused but limited objective of predicting the time of arrival (ToA) of the ICME at Earth. In this study, we describe a new tool, sunRunner1D, with the initial goal of being able to reproduce the structure and evolution of four categories of CMEs as they propagate from the corona to 1 AU. We demonstrate that sunRunner1D can reproduce the essential properties of these ICMEs to varying degrees of success. We suggest that, ultimately, this tool could assist operational forecasters in predicting space weather events, and their associated geomagnetic consequences. In the nearer term, we anticipate that it could potentially provide useful forecasts for ToA.

中文翻译：

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sunRunner1D：通过内日球层探索 ICME 演化的工具

在到达地球之前准确预测行星际日冕物质抛射 (ICME) 的特性无疑是空间天气的一个关键目标。目前，有几种有前途的技术可以实现这一目标，包括更集中但有限的目标，即预测 ICME 在地球的到达时间 (ToA)。在这项研究中，我们描述了一个新工具sunRunner1D，其最初目标是能够再现四类 CME 从日冕传播到 1 AU 的结构和演化。我们证明sunRunner1D可以在不同程度上成功地复制这些 ICME 的基本特性。我们建议，最终，该工具可以帮助业务预报员预测空间天气事件及其相关的地磁后果。在短期内，我们预计它可能会为 ToA 提供有用的预测。