This article investigates how and when regime transitions intensify minority discrimination through an analysis of two types of religious persecution following the Arab uprisings. We argue that weakened institutions and the prevalence of religious outbidding during political transitions make societal-based religious discrimination (SRD) more likely to increase than government-based religious discrimination (GRD). This is because social divisions are often exacerbated and social unrest difficult to contain, while at the same time, policy change can be difficult to enact and enforce. We test these claims through a mixed-methods research design. Employing a synthetic control method, the cross-national, quantitative analysis from 1990 to 2014 confirms that GRD has not changed since the Arab uprisings, while SRD has substantially increased in those countries (i.e. Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia) that also experienced regime change. A case study of Egypt provides more direct evidence of the institutional and outbidding mechanisms. The qualitative analysis draws on ethnographic research conducted in Cairo during 2014, which includes in-depth interviews with Coptic Orthodox Christians. Our findings underscore the twin challenge of protecting and accommodating minority religions during periods of political transition.

本文通过分析阿拉伯起义后的两种宗教迫害，调查政权更迭如何以及何时加剧少数族裔歧视。我们认为，在政治转型期间，制度的削弱和宗教竞标的盛行使得基于社会的宗教歧视 (SRD) 比基于政府的宗教歧视 (GRD) 更有可能增加。这是因为社会分裂经常加剧，社会动荡难以遏制，而与此同时，政策变革可能难以制定和执行。我们通过混合方法研究设计来测试这些主张。采用综合控制方法，从 1990 年到 2014 年的跨国定量分析证实，自阿拉伯起义以来，GRD 没有改变，而在同样经历政权更迭的国家（即埃及、利比亚和突尼斯），SRD 大幅增加。埃及的案例研究为体制和竞价机制提供了更直接的证据。定性分析借鉴了 2014 年在开罗进行的民族志研究，其中包括对科普特东正教基督徒的深入采访。我们的研究结果强调了在政治过渡时期保护和容纳少数宗教的双重挑战。