Background: With the progress of urbanization, the mobility of people has gradually increased, which has led to the further spread of dengue fever. This study evaluated the transmissibility of dengue fever within districts and between different districts in Zhanjiang City to provide corresponding advice for cross-regional prevention and control. Methods: A mathematical model of transmission dynamics was developed to explore the transmissibility of the disease and to compare that between different regions. Results: A total of 467 DF cases (6.38 per 100,000 people) were reported in Zhanjiang City in 2018. In the model, without any intervention, the number of simulated cases in this epidemic reached about 950. The dengue fever transmissions between districts varied within and between regions. When the spread of dengue fever from Chikan Districts to other districts was cut off, the number of cases in other districts dropped significantly or even to zero. When the density of mosquitoes in Xiashan District was controlled, the dengue fever epidemic in Xiashan District was found to be significantly alleviated. Conclusions: When there is a dengue outbreak, timely measures can effectively control it from developing into an epidemic. Different prevention and control measures in different districts could efficiently reduce the risk of disease transmission.

中文翻译：

---

广东省湛江市2018年登革热流行特征及动态传播模式

背景：随着城市化进程的推进，人口流动性逐渐增加，导致登革热进一步蔓延。本研究评估了湛江市登革热区域内和区域间的传播能力，为跨区域防控提供相应建议。方法：建立了传播动力学的数学模型，以探索该疾病的传播能力，并比较不同地区之间的传播情况。结果：2018年湛江市共报告登革热病例467例（每10万人6.38例）。在模型中，在没有任何干预的情况下，本次疫情的模拟病例数达到950例左右。各区之间的登革热传播情况存在差异。地区。当赤坎区的登革热向其他地区的传播被切断时，其他地区的病例数明显下降甚至为零。当夏山区蚊虫密度得到控制后，夏山区登革热疫情明显缓解。结论：当登革热爆发时，及时采取措施可以有效控制其发展为流行病。不同地区采取不同的防控措施，可以有效降低疾病传播风险。