We investigate whether the threat of recruitment by rebel groups spurs domestic and international migration. The existing literature on wartime displacement has largely focused on potential victims of violence. We argue that alongside potential victims, we should expect to see the out-migration of individuals who are attractive to the rebels as potential recruits. To test this hypothesis, we draw on original survey data collected in the context of the MFDC insurgency in southern Senegal. Causal identification stems from instrumenting recruitment threat with the density of the local forest canopy cover. Analyzing data from 3,200 respondents and over 24,000 family members, we show that individuals who fit the recruitment profiles of rebel groups are more likely to leave and be sent away by their families. Our paper contributes micro-evidence for a mechanism linking violent conflict to migration, which so far has received scant attention, and provides a deeper understanding of the composition of refugee flows.

我们调查反叛组织的招募威胁是否会刺激国内和国际移民。现有的关于战时流离失所的文献主要集中在潜在的暴力受害者身上。我们认为，除了潜在的受害者之外，我们应该期待看到对叛军有吸引力的个人作为潜在的新兵向外迁移。为了验证这一假设，我们利用在塞内加尔南部 MFDC 叛乱背景下收集的原始调查数据。因果识别源于用当地森林冠层覆盖的密度来检测招募威胁。通过分析来自 3,200 名受访者和 24,000 多名家庭成员的数据，我们发现符合反叛组织招募概况的个人更有可能离开并被家人送走。