Using a fossil fuel extraction model that treats the atmosphere as a depletable resource, we study the optimal price of carbon in the presence of endogenous uncertainty around a climatic regime shift. We find that the optimal carbon tax should account an uncertainty-adjusted cost term associated with the environment's scarcity. This term is shown to be sensitive to the natural sequestration rate of the atmosphere and to the probability surrounding a climate tail event. Our analysis also shows that in the presence of uncertainty, the shadow price of the environment should grow at a faster rate. Lastly, compared to the endogenous uncertainty case, we find that if the probability surrounding a regime shift is exogenously given, this shadow price should even grow at a higher rate.

中文翻译：

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污染资源开采和气候风险

我们使用将大气视为可耗尽资源的化石燃料开采模型，研究在气候制度转变存在内生不确定性的情况下碳的最优价格。我们发现最佳碳税应该考虑与环境稀缺性相关的不确定性调整成本项。该术语显示对大气的自然封存率和气候尾部事件周围的概率敏感。我们的分析还表明，在存在不确定性的情况下，环境的影子价格应该以更快的速度增长。最后，与内生不确定性情况相比，我们发现，如果外部给定了体制转变的概率，那么影子价格甚至应该以更高的速度增长。