Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring.

中文翻译：

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干旱森林的减少是由于对温暖干燥条件的反应而导致的补充减少和死亡率增加

预测物种人口比例的变化何时何地将导致范围变化以响应气候变化仍然是一项重大挑战。尽管有证据表明全球干旱森林的死亡率随着干旱和气温升高而增加，但对干旱森林分布的总体影响在很大程度上是未知的，因为我们缺乏关于树木补充率的可比大规模数据。在这里，我们的目标是为干燥的森林树种（松树和杜松）开发范围广泛的种群模型，量化死亡率和补充，以更好地了解物种范围收缩发生的地点和条件。