Intense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small-scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast-ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data-assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set-up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo-global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.

中文翻译：

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关于归因小规模气候事件的潜力和局限性

当发生在人口稠密的大城市上空时，强烈的对流风暴可能是危险的。在不断变化的气候中，决策者和公众越来越需要能够更好地了解这些风暴是否以及在多大程度上受到人类气候变化的影响，以及随着气候继续变暖会发生什么。不幸的是，由于解决模型中小尺度特征的能力有限，对流风暴仍然是建模界的挑战。在这里，我们使用基于预报集合的方法，使用具有完整数据同化的对流允许模型，来评估超过与丹麦哥本哈根发生的关键暴雨事件相关的某些降水阈值的风险。我们的结果表明，这种设置很好地代表了整体观察到的强度。