System safety analysis is crucial for preventing losses. To prevent losses, modern safety analysis tools need to capture both safety and security-related risks. This work proposes a holistic safety and security analysis framework that considers both the intentional and unintentional causation of risks. At first, the threats to a process system are identified, followed by analyzing the factors that may lead to these threats. Then the mechanisms to neutralize threats using safeguards are discussed. These steps are modelled in a Bayesian network (BN) framework to capture the probabilistic nature of the events and associated factors. The BN model is used to analyze the real-time risk. The proposed framework is used to study four scenarios. A comparison with previous works confirms that the proposed framework provides better understanding and analysis capabilities. This work will serve as a reference point for further development in integrated safety and security analysis.

系统安全分析对于防止损失至关重要。为了防止损失，现代安全分析工具需要捕捉安全和与安全相关的风险。这项工作提出了一个整体的安全和安保分析框架，该框架考虑了有意和无意的风险成因。首先，识别对流程系统的威胁，然后分析可能导致这些威胁的因素。然后讨论了使用安全措施消除威胁的机制。这些步骤在贝叶斯网络 (BN) 框架中建模，以捕捉事件和相关因素的概率性质。BN模型用于分析实时风险。所提出的框架用于研究四种情景。与以前的工作进行比较证实，所提出的框架提供了更好的理解和分析能力。这项工作将作为进一步发展综合安全和安保分析的参考点。