Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) is a species of conservation concern throughout North America, and healthy populations are rare. Earlier sampling efforts identified the Goulais Bay population in Lake Superior as a potentially healthy population after three years of sampling. With seven additional years of sampling, we updated the earlier analysis and developed a matrix population model to conduct a population viability analysis (PVA). We identified a non-linear relationship between cohort strength and May river discharge rate which was incorporated into the population model to evaluate the influence of future discharge scenarios on population persistence. Population size was estimated, with an open-population mark-recapture model, at approximately 5,200 juvenile Lake Sturgeon. This estimate equates to approximately 440 mature females and 625 mature males in the population. A population of this size has a probability of extinction of 4 % and 18 % over 250 and 1000 years under status quo conditions. If the May river discharge were to decrease in the future, which may represent the most likely scenario under future climate conditions, our model predicts an increased risk of population extirpation. This indicates that increased management actions may be required to ensure this population remains resilient.

湖鲟 ( Acipenser fulvescens )) 是整个北美的一种保护物种，健康的种群很少见。经过三年的抽样，早期的抽样工作将苏必利尔湖的古莱湾人口确定为潜在的健康人口。通过额外七年的抽样，我们更新了早期的分析并开发了矩阵人口模型来进行人口生存力分析 (PVA)。我们确定了队列强度与五月河流流量之间的非线性关系，并将其纳入人口模型以评估未来排放情景对人口持久性的影响。使用开放种群标记重新捕获模型估计种群规模约为 5,200 条幼鱼湖鲟。这一估计相当于人口中大约 440 名成熟女性和 625 名成熟男性。在现状条件下，这种规模的种群在 250 年和 1000 年内灭绝的概率分别为 4% 和 18%。如果未来五月河流流量减少，这可能代表未来气候条件下最有可能出现的情况，我们的模型预测人口灭绝的风险会增加。这表明可能需要采取更多的管理措施来确保这一人群保持弹性。