Incidence and number of fragility fractures of the hip in South Africa: estimated projections from 2020 to 2050,Osteoporosis International

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Incidence and number of fragility fractures of the hip in South Africa: estimated projections from 2020 to 2050
Osteoporosis International ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s00198-022-06525-5
Samuel Hawley ₁ , Sapna Dela ₂ , Anya Burton ₁ , Farhanah Paruk ₃ , Bilkish Cassim ₄ , Celia L Gregson _{1,

5}

Affiliation

Summary

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing rapid population ageing and better understanding of the burden of musculoskeletal conditions is needed. We have estimated a large increase in the burden of hip fractures for South Africa over the coming decades. These findings should support preparation of hip fracture services to meet this demand.

Introduction

A better understanding of the burden of fragility fractures in sub-Saharan Africa is needed to inform healthcare planning. We aimed to use recent hip fracture incidence data from South Africa (SA) to estimate the future burden of hip fracture for the country over the next three decades.

Methods

Hip fracture incidence data within the Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces of SA were obtained from patients aged ≥ 40 years with a radiograph-confirmed hip fracture in one of 94 included hospitals. Age-, sex- and ethnicity-specific incidence rates were generated using the 2011 SA census population for the study areas. Incidence rates were standardised to United Nations (UN) population projections, for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, and absolute numbers of hip fractures derived.

Results

The 2767 hip fracture patients studied had mean (SD) age 73.7 (12.7) years; 69% were female. Estimated age- and ethnicity-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) for the overall SA population in 2020 were 81.2 for females and 43.1 for males. Overall projected incidence rates were discernibly higher by the year 2040 and increased further by the year 2050 (109.0 and 54.1 for females and males, respectively). Estimates of the overall annual number of hip fractures for SA increased from approximately 11,000 in 2020 to approximately 26,400 by 2050.

Conclusion

The hip fracture burden for SA is expected to more than double over the next 30 years. Significant investment in fracture prevention services and inpatient fracture care is likely to be needed to meet this demand.

中文翻译：

南非髋部脆性骨折的发生率和数量：2020 年至 2050 年的估计预测

概括

撒哈拉以南非洲地区正在经历快速的人口老龄化，需要更好地了解肌肉骨骼疾病的负担。我们估计，在未来几十年内，南非的髋部骨折负担将大幅增加。这些发现应该支持准备髋部骨折服务以满足这一需求。

介绍

需要更好地了解撒哈拉以南非洲地区脆性骨折的负担，以便为医疗保健规划提供信息。我们旨在使用南非 (SA) 近期的髋部骨折发病率数据来估计该国未来三十年的髋部骨折负担。

方法

南非豪登省、夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省和西开普省的髋部骨折发病率数据来自 94 家纳入医院之一的年龄≥40 岁且 X 光片证实髋部骨折的患者。使用研究区域的 2011 年南非人口普查人口生成年龄、性别和种族特定的发病率。发病率标准化为联合国 (UN) 人口预测，2020 年、2030 年、2040 年和 2050 年，以及髋部骨折的绝对数量。

结果

研究的 2767 名髋部骨折患者的平均 (SD) 年龄为 73.7 (12.7) 岁；69% 是女性。估计 2020 年 SA 总人口的年龄和种族标准化发病率（每 100,000 人年）女性为 81.2，男性为 43.1。到 2040 年，总体预计发病率明显更高，到 2050 年进一步增加（女性和男性分别为 109.0 和 54.1）。据估计，到 2050 年，每年因 SA 导致的髋部骨折总数将从 2020 年的约 11,000 例增加到约 26,400 例。