Abstract

The recent studies relevant to cold winter atmospheric anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere are briefly reviewed, and causes for their development and possible connections with the Arctic amplification of warming are discussed. An expected frequency of occurrence of anomalous air temperature and precipitation patterns is evaluated over Northern Eurasia in the 21st century under conditions of anthropogenic growth in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The evaluation was carried out using a multi-model ensemble consisting of nine CMIP6 climate models with two scenarios of greenhouse gas forcing. The analysis revealed that warm and wet winters with frequent 0°C crossing would be more frequent in Russia by the middle of the 21st century. Unfavorable conditions may result from more frequent summer hot and dry patterns in the regions of advanced farming and increased wildfires in the European part of Russia and Western Siberia. The most negative consequences of climate change may be associated with an implementation of the rough SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario at the end of the 21st century.

中文翻译：

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CMIP6模式模拟21世纪俄罗斯冬夏异常天气模式

摘要

简要回顾了近期与北半球寒冷冬季大气异常相关的研究，并讨论了它们的发展原因以及与北极变暖放大的可能联系。在大气温室气体浓度人为增长的条件下，评估了 21 世纪欧亚大陆北部异常气温和降水模式的预期发生频率。评估是使用由九个 CMIP6 气候模型和两种温室气体强迫情景组成的多模型集合进行的。分析表明，到 21 世纪中叶，俄罗斯出现频繁穿越 0°C 的温暖潮湿冬季将​​更加频繁。不利条件可能是由于发达农业地区夏季炎热和干燥模式更加频繁，以及俄罗斯欧洲部分和西西伯利亚野火增加所致。气候变化最负面的后果可能与在 21 世纪末实施粗略的 SSP5-8.5 强迫情景有关。