ABSTRACT

Historical analogies are sometimes used to imagine the scope and nature of a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Using analogies, scenarios, and “images” of future war, instead of strategy, however, can produce an inadequate assessment of future material, operational, and tactical requirements that will be encountered by the U.S. Navy in the maritime domain. Without a long-term strategy to set force development and guide operational requirements, the U.S. Navy will suffer from a “strategy deficit” when it comes to dealing with deterrence, coercion, and escalation in the Indo-Pacific. As planning guidance, the use of analogies is no substitute for strategy.

中文翻译：

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想象印太地区的海上冲突：类比可以替代战略吗？

摘要

历史类比有时被用来想象印太地区潜在冲突的范围和性质。然而，使用未来战争的类比、情景和“图像”而不是战略，可能会对美国海军在海上领域将遇到的未来材料、作战和战术要求产生不充分的评估。如果没有制定部队发展和指导作战要求的长期战略，美国海军在处理印太地区的威慑、胁迫和升级方面将面临“战略赤字”。作为规划指导，类比的使用不能替代战略。