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Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves
Frontiers in Marine Science ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-10 , DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.930911
Fatma Akçay , Bilal Bingölbali , Adem Akpınar , Murat Kankal

It is known that densely populated coastal areas may be adversely affected as a result of the climate change effects. In this respect, for coastal protection, utilization, and management it is critical to understand the changes in wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in coastal areas. Innovative approaches, which are one of the trend analysis methods used as an effective way to examine these changes, have started to be used very frequently in many fields in recent years, although not in coastal and marine engineering. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method provides to observe the one-year behavior of the time series by representing the changes between consecutive months as well as determining the trends in each individual month. It is not also affected by constraints such as data length, distribution type or serial correlation. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate whether using innovative trend methods compared to the traditional methods makes a difference in trends of the climatological variables. For this goal, trends of mean and maximum WS and SWH series for each month at 33 coastal locations in Black Sea coasts were evaluated. Wind and wave parameters WS and SWH were obtained from 42-year long-term wave simulations using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model forced by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Monthly mean and maximum WS and SWH ​​were calculated at all locations and then trend analyses using both traditional and innovative methods were performed. Low occurrence of trends were detected for mean SWH, maximum SWH, mean WS, and maximum WS according to the Mann-Kendall test in the studied months. The IPTA method detected more trends, such as the decreasing trend of the mean SWH at most locations in May, July and November December. The lowest (highest) values were seen in summer (winter), according to a one-year cycle on the IPTA template for all variables. According to both methods, most of the months showed a decreasing trend for the mean WS at some locations in the inner continental shelf of the southwestern and southeastern Black Sea. The IPTA method can capture most of the trends detected by the Mann-Kendall method, and more missed by the latter method.



中文翻译:

通过风浪的创新多边形趋势分析进行趋势检测

众所周知,人口稠密的沿海地区可能会因气候变化的影响而受到不利影响。在这方面,对于沿海地区的保护、利用和管理,了解沿海地区风速 (WS) 和有效波高 (SWH) 的变化至关重要。创新方法是用于检查这些变化的有效方法之一的趋势分析方法,近年来已开始在许多领域非常频繁地使用,尽管在沿海和海洋工程中还没有。创新多边形趋势分析 (IPTA) 方法通过表示连续月份之间的变化以及确定每个月的趋势来观察时间序列的一年行为。它也不受数据长度等约束的影响,分布类型或序列相关性。因此,本研究的主要目的是调查与传统方法相比,使用创新趋势方法是否会对气候变量的趋势产生影响。为此,评估了黑海沿岸 33 个沿海地点每月平均和最大 WS 和 SWH 系列的趋势。风和波浪参数 WS 和 SWH 是使用气候预报系统再分析 (CFSR) 强制模拟近岸波浪 (SWAN) 模型从 42 年的长期波浪模拟中获得的。计算所有地点的月平均和最大 WS 和 SWH,然后使用传统和创新方法进行趋势分析。检测到平均 SWH、最大 SWH、平均 WS、和根据 Mann-Kendall 测试在研究月份中的最大 WS。IPTA 方法检测到更多趋势,例如在 5 月、7 月和 11 月 12 月的大多数地点平均 SWH 的下降趋势。根据 IPTA 模板中所有变量的一年周期,最低(最高)值出现在夏季(冬季)。根据这两种方法,大多数月份在黑海西南部和东南部大陆架内部分位置的平均 WS 呈下降趋势。IPTA 方法可以捕捉到 Mann-Kendall 方法检测到的大部分趋势,而后一种方法漏掉的趋势更多。根据所有变量的 IPTA 模板上的一年周期。根据这两种方法,大多数月份在黑海西南部和东南部大陆架内部分位置的平均 WS 呈下降趋势。IPTA 方法可以捕捉到 Mann-Kendall 方法检测到的大部分趋势,而后一种方法漏掉的趋势更多。根据所有变量的 IPTA 模板上的一年周期。根据这两种方法,大多数月份在黑海西南部和东南部大陆架内部分位置的平均 WS 呈下降趋势。IPTA 方法可以捕捉到 Mann-Kendall 方法检测到的大部分趋势,而后一种方法漏掉的趋势更多。

更新日期:2022-08-10
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