This paper introduces a dynamic change of measure approach for computing analytical solutions of expected future prices (and therefore, expected returns) of contingent claims over a finite horizon. The new approach constructs hybrid probability measures called equivalent expectation measures (EEMs) that provide the physical expectation of the claim's future price before the horizon date, and serve as pricing measures on or after the horizon date. The EEM theory can be used for empirical investigations of both the cross-section and the term structure of returns of contingent claims, such as Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, and financial derivatives.

中文翻译：

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或有债权收益的等价预期测度理论

本文介绍了一种动态测度变化方法，用于计算有限范围内或有债权的预期未来价格（以及预期收益）的分析解决方案。新方法构建了称为等效预期测量 (EEM) 的混合概率测量，它提供了在期限日期之前索赔未来价格的物理预期，并在期限日期或之后用作定价措施。EEM 理论可用于对或有债权（如国债、公司债券和金融衍生品）收益的横截面和期限结构的实证研究。