Simulation of the Effect of Small-Scale Mountains on Weather Conditions During the May 2021 Ultramarathon in Gansu Province, China,Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

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Simulation of the Effect of Small-Scale Mountains on Weather Conditions During the May 2021 Ultramarathon in Gansu Province, China
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-09 , DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036465
Haile Xue _{1,

2} , Jian Li ₂ , Qinghong Zhang ₃ , Hongping Gu ₄

Affiliation

Hypothermia killed 21 participants of the 100 km cross-country Ultramarathon Mountain race in Baiyin, Gansu Province in northwestern China on 22 May 2021, when a large-scale cold front passed by the race site. The hypothermia was caused by low temperatures, high winds, and hail-like precipitation, as reported by survivors. However, there is no meteorological station near the race site, leading to a lack of data on the exact weather conditions during the race. Considering the complex topography of the race site, the weather conditions must be re-built using high-resolution model simulations, so that the tragedy can be investigated. In this study, the weather conditions in this mountainous area were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a 333 m horizontal grid size. The results show that interaction between the mountain wind and orographic precipitation led to a 6.7°C decrease in temperature and a 12 m s⁻¹ increase in wind speed. Precipitation increased owing to orographic accent and convergence, and fell as graupel. High-speed downslope winds were the result of large-amplitude trapped lee waves. The combination of low temperatures, high winds, and spillover graupel on the lee resulted in the blizzard-like weather during the race, thus the hypothermia amongst the runners. The apparent temperature was estimated to be as low as −10°C. Our study shows that mesoscale numerical models with a grid size of hundreds of meters should be used to improve weather forecasts in mountainous regions and prevent future tragedies for special events.

更新日期：2022-08-09

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