Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations,International Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation extremes over the tropical Americas under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios: Results from dynamical downscaling simulations
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-09 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7828
Alexandre Araújo Costa ₁ , Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães _{1,

2,

3,

4} , Domingo Cassain Sales ₃ , Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior ₃ , Marcos Wender Santiago Marinho ₁ , José Marcelo Rodrigues Pereira ₃ , Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins ₃ , Emerson Mariano da Silva ₁

Affiliation

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short-term, mid-term and long-term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas.

中文翻译：

RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候变化情景下热带美洲的极端降水：动力降尺度模拟的结果

由 CMIP5 地球系统模型 HadGEM2-ES 的数据驱动的区域大气建模系统 (RAMS) 用于模拟热带美洲当前和未来气候的每日降水量，包括不同的情景（代表性浓度路径 4.5 和 8.5）和不同的时间范围（短期、中期和长期变化）。主要目标是评估极端事件未来可能发生的变化，重点是降水事件的强度和干湿期的持续时间。据 RAMS 称，预计未来美洲热带地区的大部分地区将出现更长的干旱期，巴西东北部、加勒比海地区、亚马逊北部有迹象表明，而中美洲和亚马逊地区的湿期将更短。除了加勒比地区，

更新日期：2022-08-09

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