Why people do or do not change their beliefs has been a long-standing puzzle. Sometimes people hold onto false beliefs despite ample contradictory evidence; sometimes they change their beliefs without sufficient reason. Here, we propose that the utility of a belief is derived from the potential outcomes associated with holding it. Outcomes can be internal (e.g., positive/negative feelings) or external (e.g., material gain/loss), and only some are dependent on belief accuracy. Belief change can then be understood as an economic transaction in which the multidimensional utility of the old belief is compared against that of the new belief. Change will occur when potential outcomes alter across attributes, for example because of changing environments or when certain outcomes are made more or less salient.

为什么人们改变或不改变他们的信仰一直是一个长期存在的谜题。有时，尽管有大量相互矛盾的证据，人们仍坚持错误的信念；有时他们会在没有充分理由的情况下改变自己的信念。在这里，我们建议信念的效用来自与持有它相关的潜在结果。结果可以是内部的（例如，积极/消极的感受）或外部的（例如，物质收益/损失），只有一些取决于信念的准确性。然后，可以将信念改变理解为一种经济交易，其中将旧信念的多维效用与新信念的多维效用进行比较。当潜在结果因属性而改变时，例如由于环境变化或某些结果变得或多或少显着时，就会发生变化。