People are on the move in unprecedented numbers within and between countries. How does demographic change affect local intergroup dynamics? Complementing accounts that emphasize stereotypical features of groups as determinants of their treatment, we propose the group reference dependence hypothesis: violence and negative attitudes towards each minoritized group will depend on the number and size of other minoritized groups in a community. Specifically, as groups increase or decrease in rank in terms of their size (for example, to the largest minority within a community), discriminatory behaviour and attitudes towards them should change accordingly. We test this hypothesis for hate crimes in US counties between 1990 and 2010 and attitudes in the United States and United Kingdom over the past two decades. Consistent with this prediction, we find that as Black, Hispanic/Latinx, Asian and Arab populations increase in rank relative to one another, they become more likely to be targeted with hate crimes and more negative attitudes. The rank effect holds above and beyond group size/proportion, growth rate and many other alternative explanations. This framework makes predictions about how demographic shifts may affect coalitional structures in the coming years and helps explain previous findings in the literature. Our results also indicate that attitudes and behaviours towards social categories are not intransigent or driven only by features associated with those groups, such as stereotypes.

人们在国家内部和国家之间以前所未有的数量流动。人口变化如何影响当地的群体间动态？作为对强调群体刻板印象特征作为其待遇决定因素的补充说明，我们提出了群体参考依赖假设：对每个少数群体的暴力和消极态度将取决于社区中其他少数群体的数量和规模。具体而言，随着群体规模的增加或减少（例如，对社区中最大的少数群体），歧视行为和对他们的态度应相应改变。我们针对 1990 年至 2010 年间美国各县的仇恨犯罪以及美国和英国过去二十年的态度检验了这一假设。与这个预测一致，我们发现，随着黑人、西班牙裔/拉丁裔、亚洲人和阿拉伯人的排名相对上升，他们更有可能成为仇恨犯罪和更多消极态度的目标。排名效应超越群体规模/比例、增长率和许多其他替代解释。该框架预测了未来几年人口变化可能如何影响联盟结构，并有助于解释文献中先前的发现。我们的结果还表明，对社会类别的态度和行为并不是顽固的，也不是仅由与这些群体相关的特征驱动的，例如刻板印象。排名效应超越群体规模/比例、增长率和许多其他替代解释。该框架预测了未来几年人口变化可能如何影响联盟结构，并有助于解释文献中先前的发现。我们的结果还表明，对社会类别的态度和行为并不是顽固的，也不是仅由与这些群体相关的特征驱动的，例如刻板印象。排名效应超越群体规模/比例、增长率和许多其他替代解释。该框架预测了未来几年人口变化可能如何影响联盟结构，并有助于解释文献中先前的发现。我们的结果还表明，对社会类别的态度和行为并不是顽固的，也不是仅由与这些群体相关的特征驱动的，例如刻板印象。