At Mt. Etna volcano, flank eruptions are often accompanied by seismic swarms with damaging earthquakes; the most recent case-history is the 2018 flank eruption, associated with a destructive earthquake (M_w 5.0). In this paper, we analyze the earthquake and eruptive catalogs from 1800 to 2018, to produce quantitative estimates of the earthquake rate under the influence of flank eruptions. We quantify that 30% of the flank eruption onsets precede a major (i.e., damaging, I_x ≥ V–VI EMS) earthquake by 30 days or less; 18% of the major earthquakes follow a flank eruption onset in 30 days or less. Thus, we show that the probability of major earthquakes increases 5–10 times after the onset of flank eruptions and this effect lasts for 30–45 days. This is also observed after the end of the eruptions. Results indicate different relationships depending on the location of the volcano-tectonic systems considered individually (eruptive fissures, seismogenic faults). For instance, we describe a 10–20 times increased probability of earthquakes for 65–70 days after eruptions on the northeastern flank, and of new flank eruptions for 45–70 days after earthquakes of the Pernicana fault.

中文翻译：

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量化侧面喷发与 Mt. Etna 火山（意大利）主要地震之间的统计关系

在埃特纳火山，侧面喷发通常伴随着具有破坏性地震的地震群；最近的案例是 2018 年的侧翼喷发，与破坏性地震有关（M _w 5.0）。在本文中，我们分析了 1800 年至 2018 年的地震和喷发目录，以对侧面喷发影响下的地震速率进行定量估计。我们量化了 30% 的侧翼喷发先于一次大喷发（即破坏性，I _x ≥ V–VI EMS) 地震 30 天或更短；18% 的大地震在 30 天或更短时间内发生侧翼爆发。因此，我们表明，在侧翼爆发后，发生大地震的概率增加了 5-10 倍，并且这种影响持续了 30-45 天。在喷发结束后也观察到这一点。结果表明不同的关系取决于单独考虑的火山构造系统的位置（喷发裂缝，发震断层）。例如，我们描述了东北侧火山爆发后 65-70 天内发生地震的概率增加了 10-20 倍，而 Pernicana 断层地震后 45-70 天内发生了新的侧翼爆发。