Background

According to the vulnerability model, low self-esteem makes people more depressed. Support for the vulnerability model comes almost exclusively from analyses using cross-lagged panel models, showing a negative effect of initial self-esteem on subsequent depression ratings when adjusting for initial depression. However, it is well known that such adjusted effects are susceptible to regression toward the mean.

Methods

Data from four waves of measurements in five different samples (total N = 2703) were analyzed with two different cross-lagged panel models, two different random intercept cross-lagged panel models, and two different latent change score models, predicting change forwards as well as backwards in time.

Results

High initial self-esteem predicted both decreased and increased depression ratings between measurements and an increase in self-esteem between measurements predicted a concurrent decrease in depression ratings.

Limitations

Only data from two western countries, Switzerland and USA, were analyzed. Whether the main finding, that a prospective effect of self-esteem on subsequent depression ratings might be spurious, applies to other countries and cultures remains an open question.

Conclusions

Due to the incongruent results, any causal effect of self-esteem on depression ratings, and thus the vulnerability model as such, cannot be corroborated by the data and models analyzed here. Instead, we propose, tentatively, that prospective associations between self-esteem and depression ratings may be spurious due to a combination of reasons, including regression toward the mean. The indication that depression might not be affected by measures to improve individuals' self-esteem is of clinical relevance.

中文翻译：

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质疑脆弱性模型：低自尊与随后的抑郁评级之间的前瞻性关联可能是虚假的

背景

根据脆弱性模型，低自尊会使人更加沮丧。对脆弱性模型的支持几乎完全来自使用交叉滞后面板模型的分析，表明在调整初始抑郁时，初始自尊对随后的抑郁评级有负面影响。然而，众所周知，这种调整后的效果容易向均值回归。

方法

 使用两种不同的交叉滞后面板模型、两种不同的随机截距交叉滞后面板模型和两种不同的潜在变化评分模型分析来自五个不同样本（总共N = 2703）的四波测量数据，并预测向前的变化就像时间倒退一样。

结果

较高的初始自尊预测测量之间的抑郁等级降低和增加，测量之间的自尊增加预测抑郁等级的同时降低。

限制

仅分析了来自两个西方国家瑞士和美国的数据。自尊对随后抑郁评级的预期影响可能是虚假的这一主要发现是否适用于其他国家和文化仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。

结论

由于不一致的结果，自尊对抑郁评级的任何因果影响，以及脆弱性模型本身，都无法通过此处分析的数据和模型得到证实。相反，我们暂时提出，自尊和抑郁评级之间的预期关联可能是虚假的，原因有多种，包括回归均值。改善个人自尊的措施可能不会影响抑郁症的迹象具有临床意义。