This articles discusses the importance and types of uncertainty in environmental science. Uncertainty is categorized into four types, three of which are familiar to statisticians and one of which is introduced by the authors as knowledge uncertainty. The article claims that the Bayesian paradigm is a logically consistent mechanism, and a useful framework for decision makers in environmental science, to manage and quantify the first three types of uncertainty. However knowledge uncertainty, common in environmental sciences, requires more detailed thought and more nuanced management strategies for robust decision making in the environment. The article concludes with the observation that only if we acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in inferring complex quantities from data can we make robust and explainable policy decisions that build trust with the public.

中文翻译：

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不确定性：没有比这更确定的了

本文讨论了环境科学中不确定性的重要性和类型。不确定性分为四种类型，其中三种为统计学家所熟悉，其中一种被作者称为知识不确定性。文章声称贝叶斯范式是一种逻辑上一致的机制，是环境科学决策者管理和量化前三种不确定性的有用框架。然而知识的不确定性，在环境科学中很常见，需要更详细的思考和更细致的管理策略才能在环境中做出稳健的决策。这篇文章的结论是，只有承认从数据中推断复杂数量所固有的不确定性，我们才能做出稳健且可解释的政策决策，从而建立公众的信任。