Wild and semidomesticated reindeer are one of the key species in Arctic and subarctic areas, and their population dynamics are closely tied to winter conditions. Difficult snow conditions have been found to decrease the calving success and survivability of reindeer, but the economic effects of variation in winter conditions on reindeer husbandry have not been studied. In this study, we combine state-of-the-art economic–ecological modeling with the analysis of annual reindeer management reports from Finland. These contain local knowledge of herding communities. We quantify the occurrence probabilities of different types of winters from annual management reports and analyze the effects of this variation in winter conditions on reindeer husbandry using an age- and sex-structured bioeconomic reindeer–lichen model. Our results show that difficult winters decrease the net revenues of reindeer husbandry. However, they also protect lichen pastures from grazing, thereby increasing future net revenues. Nonetheless, our solutions show that the variability of winter conditions overall decrease the net income of herders compared to constant winter conditions. Low lichen biomass appears to make reindeer management more sensitive to the effects of difficult winter conditions. We also found that it is economically sensible to use supplementary feeding during difficult winters, but the net revenues still decrease compared to average winters because of the high feeding costs. Overall, our analysis suggests that the increasing variability of winter conditions due to climate change will decrease net revenues in reindeer husbandry. This decrease will still occur even if the most extreme effects of climate change do not occur. This study shows that combining a state-of-the-art bioeconomic model and practitioner knowledge can bring compatible insights, ideas, results, and a bottom-up perspective to the discussion.

中文翻译：

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冬季条件多变性降低了驯鹿畜牧业的经济可持续性

野生和半驯化的驯鹿是北极和亚北极地区的主要物种之一，它们的种群动态与冬季条件密切相关。已经发现困难的积雪条件会降低驯鹿的产犊成功率和生存能力，但尚未研究冬季条件变化对驯鹿畜牧业的经济影响。在这项研究中，我们将最先进的经济生态模型与芬兰年度驯鹿管理报告的分析相结合。这些包含放牧社区的当地知识。我们从年度管理报告中量化不同类型冬季的发生概率，并使用年龄和性别结构的生物经济驯鹿-地衣模型分析冬季条件的这种变化对驯鹿畜牧业的影响。我们的结果表明，艰难的冬季会降低驯鹿畜牧业的净收入。然而，它们也保护地衣牧场免于放牧，从而增加未来的净收入。尽管如此，我们的解决方案表明，与恒定的冬季条件相比，冬季条件的多变性总体上会降低牧民的净收入。低地衣生物量似乎使驯鹿管理对困难冬季条件的影响更加敏感。我们还发现，在困难的冬季使用补充饲料在经济上是明智的，但由于饲养成本高，净收入与平均冬季相比仍然有所下降。总的来说，我们的分析表明，由于气候变化，冬季条件的变化越来越大，这将减少驯鹿畜牧业的净收入。即使气候变化的最极端影响没有发生，这种减少仍然会发生。这项研究表明，结合最先进的生物经济学模型和从业者知识可以为讨论带来兼容的见解、想法、结果和自下而上的视角。