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How explosive volcanic eruptions reshape daily precipitation distributions
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100489
Seungmok Paik , Seung-Ki Min , Soon-Il An

Previous studies have found that global land precipitation is decreased after explosive volcanic eruptions, especially over global summer monsoon regions. However, detailed changes in daily precipitation distributions and related physical mechanisms remain unclear. This study examines responses of daily precipitation distribution to low-latitude volcanic eruptions using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations. Observations reveal consistent decreases in daily precipitation intensity over global monsoon regions following the Pinatubo eruption across all percentiles, accompanied by decreases in frequency of moderate to heavy precipitation (above 70th percentile) and increases in light precipitation (10th to 40th percentiles). These observed changes are reasonably captured by CMIP6 multi-model simulations following Krakatau and Pinatubo eruptions, which induce strong precipitation reduction in both hemispheres. Detailed moisture budget analysis shows that reduced vertical moisture advection is a dominant process reshaping the daily precipitation distributions. It is further found that the weakened vertical moisture advection is contributed by both thermodynamic (atmospheric moisture decrease) and dynamic effects (suppressed vertical motion). Finally, CMIP6 models simulate robust El Niño occurrence in post-eruption years, which further enhances drying responses, explaining most of the precipitation decrease for 30th-60th percentiles, about a half for 70th-80th percentiles, and about one third for 90th-98th percentiles.



中文翻译:

火山爆发如何重塑每日降水分布

先前的研究发现,火山爆发后全球陆地降水减少,特别是在全球夏季风区。然而,每日降水分布的详细变化和相关的物理机制仍不清楚。本研究使用观测和耦合模式比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 多模式模拟来检查每日降水分布对低纬度火山爆发的响应。观测结果显示,在皮纳图博火山爆发后,全球季风区域的每日降水强度持续下降,伴随着中度至强降水频率的降低(高于 70%)和轻度降水的增加(10% 至 40%)。喀拉喀托火山和皮纳图博火山喷发后的 CMIP6 多模型模拟合理地捕捉到了这些观察到的变化,这导致两个半球的降水量大幅减少。详细的水分预算分析表明,减少的垂直水分平流是重塑每日降水分布的主要过程。进一步发现,减弱的垂直水分平流是由热力学(大气水分减少)和动力效应(抑制垂直运动)共同促成的。最后,CMIP6 模型模拟了喷发后强厄尔尼诺现象的发生,这进一步增强了干燥响应,解释了 30-60%、70-80% 约一半和 90-98% 约三分之一的降水减少百分位数。这导致两个半球的降水量强烈减少。详细的水分预算分析表明,减少的垂直水分平流是重塑每日降水分布的主要过程。进一步发现,减弱的垂直水分平流是由热力学(大气水分减少)和动力效应(抑制垂直运动)共同促成的。最后,CMIP6 模型模拟了喷发后强厄尔尼诺现象的发生,这进一步增强了干燥响应,解释了 30-60%、70-80% 约一半和 90-98% 约三分之一的降水减少百分位数。这导致两个半球的降水量强烈减少。详细的水分预算分析表明,减少的垂直水分平流是重塑每日降水分布的主要过程。进一步发现,减弱的垂直水分平流是由热力学(大气水分减少)和动力效应(抑制垂直运动)共同促成的。最后,CMIP6 模型模拟了喷发后强厄尔尼诺现象的发生,这进一步增强了干燥响应,解释了 30-60%、70-80% 约一半和 90-98% 约三分之一的降水减少百分位数。详细的水分预算分析表明,减少的垂直水分平流是重塑每日降水分布的主要过程。进一步发现,减弱的垂直水分平流是由热力学(大气水分减少)和动力效应(抑制垂直运动)共同促成的。最后,CMIP6 模型模拟了喷发后强厄尔尼诺现象的发生,这进一步增强了干燥响应,解释了 30-60%、70-80% 约一半和 90-98% 约三分之一的降水减少百分位数。详细的水分预算分析表明,减少的垂直水分平流是重塑每日降水分布的主要过程。进一步发现,减弱的垂直水分平流是由热力学(大气水分减少)和动力效应(抑制垂直运动)共同促成的。最后,CMIP6 模型模拟了喷发后强厄尔尼诺现象的发生,这进一步增强了干燥响应,解释了 30-60%、70-80% 约一半和 90-98% 约三分之一的降水减少百分位数。

更新日期:2022-08-07
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