The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management,Nature

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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
Nature ( IF 50.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-08-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5
Heidi Kreibich ₁ , Anne F Van Loon ₂ , Kai Schröter _{1,

3} , Philip J Ward ₂ , Maurizio Mazzoleni ₂ , Nivedita Sairam ₁ , Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu ₄ , Svetlana Agafonova ₅ , Amir AghaKouchak ₆ , Hafzullah Aksoy ₇ , Camila Alvarez-Garreton _{8,

9} , Blanca Aznar ₁₀ , Laila Balkhi ₁₁ , Marlies H Barendrecht ₂ , Sylvain Biancamaria ₁₂ , Liduin Bos-Burgering ₁₃ , Chris Bradley ₁₄ , Yus Budiyono ₁₅ , Wouter Buytaert ₁₆ , Lucinda Capewell ₁₄ , Hayley Carlson ₁₁ , Yonca Cavus _{17,

18,

19} , Anaïs Couasnon ₂ , Gemma Coxon _{20,

21} , Ioannis Daliakopoulos ₂₂ , Marleen C de Ruiter ₂ , Claire Delus ₂₃ , Mathilde Erfurt ₁₉ , Giuseppe Esposito ₂₄ , Didier François ₂₃ , Frédéric Frappart ₂₅ , Jim Freer _{20,

21,

26} , Natalia Frolova ₅ , Animesh K Gain _{27,

28} , Manolis Grillakis ₂₉ , Jordi Oriol Grima ₁₀ , Diego A Guzmán ₃₀ , Laurie S Huning _{6,

31} , Monica Ionita _{32,

33,

34} , Maxim Kharlamov _{5,

35} , Dao Nguyen Khoi ₃₆ , Natalie Kieboom ₃₇ , Maria Kireeva ₅ , Aristeidis Koutroulis ₃₈ , Waldo Lavado-Casimiro ₃₉ , Hong-Yi Li ₄ , María Carmen LLasat _{40,

41} , David Macdonald ₄₂ , Johanna Mård _{43,

44} , Hannah Mathew-Richards ₃₇ , Andrew McKenzie ₄₂ , Alfonso Mejia ₄₅ , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ₄₆ , Marjolein Mens ₄₇ , Shifteh Mobini _{48,

49} , Guilherme Samprogna Mohor ₅₀ , Viorica Nagavciuc _{32,

34} , Thanh Ngo-Duc ₅₁ , Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh ₅₂ , Pham Thi Thao Nhi ₃₆ , Olga Petrucci ₂₄ , Hong Quan Nguyen _{52,

53} , Pere Quintana-Seguí ₅₄ , Saman Razavi _{11,

55,

56} , Elena Ridolfi ₅₇ , Jannik Riegel ₅₈ , Md Shibly Sadik ₅₉ , Elisa Savelli _{43,

44} , Alexey Sazonov _{5,

35} , Sanjib Sharma ₆₀ , Johanna Sörensen ₄₉ , Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza ₄₆ , Kerstin Stahl ₁₉ , Max Steinhausen ₁ , Michael Stoelzle ₁₉ , Wiwiana Szalińska ₆₁ , Qiuhong Tang ₆₂ , Fuqiang Tian ₆₃ , Tamara Tokarczyk ₆₁ , Carolina Tovar ₆₄ , Thi Van Thu Tran ₅₂ , Marjolein H J Van Huijgevoort ₆₅ , Michelle T H van Vliet ₆₆ , Sergiy Vorogushyn ₁ , Thorsten Wagener _{21,

50,

67} , Yueling Wang ₆₂ , Doris E Wendt ₆₇ , Elliot Wickham ₆₈ , Long Yang ₆₉ , Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini _{8,

9} , Günter Blöschl ₇₀ , Giuliano Di Baldassarre _{43,

44,

71}

Affiliation

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany.
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River basin management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA.
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile.
Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile.
Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain.
Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.
Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Department of Agriculture, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Iraklio, Greece.
Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France.
CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Cosenza, Italy.
INRAE, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon, France.
University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.
Environmental Policy and Planning Group, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.
Lab of Geophysical-Remote Sensing & Archaeo-environment, Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno, Greece.
Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bucaramanga, Colombia.
California State University, Long Beach, CA, USA.
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania.
Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia.
Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Environment Agency, Bristol, UK.
School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece.
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú, Lima, Peru.
Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Water Research Institute, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
British Geological Survey, Wallingford, UK.
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.
Department of Water Resources & Delta Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.
Trelleborg municipality, Trelleborg, Sweden.
Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany.
University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Institute for Circular Economy Development, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Observatori de l'Ebre, Ramon Llull University - CSIC, Roquetes, Spain.
School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy.
University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany.
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Royal Botanical Gardens Kew, London, UK.
KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands.
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA.
School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria.
Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, IHE Delft, Delft, the Netherlands.

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally^1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data^4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change³.

中文翻译：

史无前例的洪水和干旱对风险管理的挑战

风险管理降低了全球^1,2洪水和干旱的脆弱性，但它们的影响仍在增加³。因此需要更好地了解影响变化的原因，但由于缺乏经验数据而受到阻碍^4,5. 基于在同一地区发生的 45 对事件的全球数据集，我们表明风险管理通常会减少洪水和干旱的影响，但在减少以前没有经历过的规模空前事件的影响方面面临困难。如果第二件事比第一件事危险得多，它的影响几乎总是更大。这是因为管理并不是为了应对此类极端事件而设计的：例如，它们超出了堤坝和水库的设计水位。在两个成功案例中，由于改进了风险管理治理和对综合管理的高投资，第二个更危险的事件的影响较小。观察到的管理前所未有的事件的困难令人震惊，³ .

更新日期：2022-08-04

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