Residential GHG emissions in the United States are driven in part by a housing stock where onsite fossil combustion is common, home sizes are large by international standards, energy efficiency potential is large and electricity generation in many regions is GHG intensive. In this analysis, we assess decarbonization pathways for the US residential sector to 2060, through 108 scenarios describing housing stock evolution, new housing characteristics, renovation levels and clean electricity. The lowest emission pathways involve very rapid decarbonization of electricity supply alongside extensive renovations to existing homes, including improving thermal envelopes and heat pump electrification of heating. Reducing the size and increasing the electrification of new homes provide further emission cuts and combining all strategies enables reductions of 91% between 2020 and 2050. The potential of individual mitigation strategies shows great regional variation. Reaching zero emissions will require simultaneous deployment of multiple strategies and greater reduction of embodied emissions.

美国的住宅温室气体排放部分是由现场化石燃烧普遍的住房存量驱动的，按照国际标准，家庭规模很大，能源效率潜力很大，并且许多地区的发电是温室气体密集型的。在本分析中，我们通过描述住房存量演变、新住房特征、翻新水平和清洁电力的 108 个情景评估了美国住宅部门到 2060 年的脱碳路径。最低排放途径包括电力供应的快速脱碳以及对现有房屋的大规模翻新，包括改善热封套和供暖的热泵电气化。减少新住宅的面积并增加电气化可进一步减少排放，结合所有策略可在 2020 年至 2050 年期间减少 91%。个别缓解策略的潜力显示出巨大的区域差异。实现零排放将需要同时部署多种策略并更大程度地减少隐含排放。