Background/aims Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma of ocular adnexa (OA-EMZL) is the most frequent type of ocular adnexal lymphomas, with a high rate of disease recurrence. Precise patient stratification based on disease recurrence is understudied. This study aims to identify risk factors of distant recurrence (DR) and local recurrence (LR) to construct a prognostic model optimising rapid decision of therapeutic strategies. Methods A total of 104 patients diagnosed with OA-EMZL between January 2011 and February 2020 were enrolled. Propensity score matching was performed for DR and LR groups. A nomogram was generated using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results After matching, different independent risk factors of DR and LR were identified. Monocyte percentage (p=0.015) and M category >0 (p=0.043) were significant independent risk factors of DR. Epiphora (p<0.001) was the significant independent risk factor of LR. Three factors (monocyte percentage, M category >0, age >60) were integrated into the nomogram to predict the risk of DR. It had a relatively better discriminative ability for distant recurrence-free survival (C-index: 3-year, 0.784; 6-year, 0.801) than IPI score (C-index: 3-year, 0.663; 6-year, 0.673) in the cohort of all patients. Conclusion Our analyses suggested DR and LR as two distinct prognostic events, and additionally identified novel risk factors of them. The nomogram may serve as a practical tool for the prognostic estimation and rapid decision of therapeutic strategies for patients with OA-EMZL. Data are available upon reasonable request. Data are available upon reasonable request. The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

中文翻译：

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预测眼附件结外边缘区淋巴瘤患者远处和局部复发的风险：一项匹配的病例对照研究

背景/目的眼附属器结外边缘区淋巴瘤（OA-EMZL）是最常见的眼附属器淋巴瘤类型，疾病复发率很高。基于疾病复发的精确患者分层尚未得到充分研究。本研究旨在确定远处复发（DR）和局部复发（LR）的危险因素，以构建优化治疗策略快速决策的预后模型。方法 纳入2011年1月至2020年2月诊断为OA-EMZL的104例患者。对 DR 和 LR 组进行倾向评分匹配。使用多元 Cox 比例风险模型生成列线图。结果匹配后，确定了DR和LR的不同独立危险因素。单核细胞百分比（p=0.015）和M类别>0（p=0.043）是DR的显着独立危险因素。溢泪（p<0.001）是LR的显着独立危险因素。将三个因素（单核细胞百分比、M 类别 >0、年龄 >60）整合到列线图中以预测 DR 风险。与IPI评分（C指数：3年，0.663；6年，0.673）相比，其对远处无复发生存的判别能力（C指数：3年，0.784；6年，0.801）相对更好在所有患者的队列中。结论 我们的分析表明 DR 和 LR 是两种不同的预后事件，并且还确定了它们的新危险因素。该列线图可作为 OA-EMZL 患者预后评估和快速决策治疗策略的实用工具。数据可根据合理要求提供。数据可根据合理要求提供。用于支持本研究结果的数据可根据要求向通讯作者提供。