The Bayu Tunnel is the most problematic tunnel project in the Lhasa-Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway. Rockbursts have occurred frequently during the construction process, which has seriously threatened the safety of construction workers and equipment. Aiming at the rockburst hazard prediction problem of the Bayu Tunnel, in this paper an integrating method of combination weighting and matter-element extension theory is proposed. This method introduces the rock brittleness evaluation index BICSS, Russenes criterion and rock mass integrity coefficient as the main rockburst evaluation indexes, which characterized the control factors of rock physical and mechanical property, surrounding rock stress and rock mass integrity on rockburst tendency, respectively. Then the rockburst tendency evaluation index system is constructed. The weight of each rockburst control factor is determined by the combination weighting algorithm of triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process (TFN-AHP), criteria importance though intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), and determination of comprehensive weight (MDI). The correlation degree between the rockburst sample and rockburst grade can be calculated using the matter-element extension theory, after which the prediction of rockburst grade is carried out. Finally, the applicability, superiority and the necessity of selected rockburst control factors in this method are verified and discussed further. The research results provide a new analysis method and technical means for rockburst tendency assessment of deep tunnel.

巴渝隧道是川藏铁路拉林段最成问题的隧道工程。施工过程中经常发生岩爆，严重威胁施工人员和设备的安全。针对巴渝隧道岩爆危险性预测问题，提出一种组合加权与物元可拓理论相结合的方法。该方法引入岩石脆性评价指标BICSS、Russenes准则和岩体完整性系数作为主要岩爆评价指标，分别表征了岩石物理力学性质、围岩应力和岩体完整性对岩爆倾向的控制因素。然后构建了岩爆倾向评价指标体系。各岩爆控制因素的权重由三角模糊数层次分析法（TFN-AHP）组合加权算法、准则间相关性判据重要性（CRITIC）和综合权重确定（MDI）确定。岩爆样品与岩爆等级之间的相关程度可以利用物元可拓理论计算出来，然后进行岩爆等级的预测。最后，进一步验证和讨论了该方法选择岩爆控制因素的适用性、优越性和必要性。研究成果为深部隧道岩爆趋势评价提供了新的分析方法和技术手段。