CONTEXT

The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower's level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain.

METHODS

We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest.

SIGNIFICANCE

The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. The findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和供应中断事件对马铃薯供应链的多层次影响：基于代理的建模方法

语境

由于气候变化，世界正在经历频繁的极端天气事件，如干旱、暴风雪和季节变化。由于农业依赖于气候条件，这些极端天气事件的频率和严重程度不断增加，威胁着粮食安全。气候变化对农业系统的影响不仅发生在种植者层面，而且会蔓延到供应链的其他层面。

客观的

本研究旨在量化不同极端气候事件对食品供应链不同阶段的广泛经济影响。

方法

我们选择爱达荷州的马铃薯供应链作为案例研究。我们使用基于代理的建模 (ABM) 方法开发了一个多梯队供应链模拟模型，其中包含五种代理——农民、托运人、加工商、零售商和物流公司。除了一切照旧 (BAU) 情景外，我们还设计了两个与气候相关的中断事件——干旱和暴风雪。我们使用包括收入、价格、交货时间、交易量和食物浪费量在内的关键绩效指标 (KPI) 来量化新鲜和加工马铃薯供应链不同阶段的异质影响。

结果与结论

中断事件对不同产品类别的供应链中的不同代理的影响是不同的。在中断事件期间，新鲜马铃薯的价格上涨远高于加工马铃薯。这种价格上涨使消费者转向加工土豆，这需要更多的新鲜土豆作为投入，进一步加剧了价格上涨。然而，由于加工马铃薯具有弹性需求，一旦由于投入成本较高而价格上涨，其需求就会下降。非签约农民从中断事件中获得额外收入，而签约农民由于锁定价格和低于往常的收成而蒙受损失。

意义

本研究中开发的方法可应用于其他食品和农业供应链，以了解由于气候变化破坏事件导致的代理层面的脆弱性。研究结果将有助于制定缓解战略或政策，以改善整个供应链的福祉。