Private-label (PL) shares are characterized by considerable heterogeneity across both countries and categories, not only in their current level, but also in the rate at which they are growing. This creates ambiguity about their remaining growth potential. To offer insights into the likely long-run PL shares, we take a forward-looking perspective by means of a convergence model. We apply the model to two unique datasets that together span more than 50 countries, both emerging and developed, across more than70 CPG categories. We find evidence of partial PL convergence: even though PL shares will become more similar, part of the currently observed heterogeneity will persist. The future evolution in two key marketing instruments, new-product introductions by both NB manufacturers and retailers and the NB-PL price gap, is found to play a substantial role in shaping the global PL landscape of the future. This impact is not uniform, however, but depends on the category, and varies with the retail, economic and cultural context. In addition, the long-run impact of both marketing drivers differs from what is currently observed, suggesting that managers should not adhere too strongly to earlier practices when planning for the future.

自有品牌 (PL) 份额的特点是在国家和类别之间存在相当大的异质性，不仅在目前的水平上，而且在它们的增长速度上。这造成了关于它们剩余增长潜力的模糊性。为了深入了解可能的长期 PL 股票，我们通过收敛模型采取前瞻性观点。我们将该模型应用于两个独特的数据集，这两个数据集共同跨越 50 多个国家，包括新兴国家和发达国家，跨越 70 多个 CPG 类别。我们发现部分 PL 收敛的证据：即使 PL 份额将变得更加相似，但目前观察到的部分异质性将持续存在。两个关键营销工具的未来发展， NB 制造商和零售商的新产品介绍以及 NB-PL价格差距被发现在塑造未来全球 PL 格局方面发挥着重要作用。然而，这种影响并不统一，而是取决于类别，并随零售、经济和文化背景而变化。此外，这两种营销驱动因素的长期影响与目前观察到的不同，这表明管理者在规划未来时不应过于坚持早期的做法。