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Topics of the nationwide phone-ins with Vladimir Putin and their role for public support and Russian economy
Information Processing & Management ( IF 8.6 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2022.103043
Ivan Savin , Nikita Teplyakov

The addresses of national leaders can affect their public support and spur changes in the country's economy. To date, very few studies exist establishing these relationships, and no research has been done on the addresses from Vladimir Putin. In this paper we fill this knowledge gap by analysing the nationwide phone-ins of Putin, a special annual format where he addresses the public, and using structural topic modelling studying their topics over time. Furthermore, we relate these topics to public approval of the president and the government as well as to some Russian macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and budget expenditures. Based on our data containing 1938 responses and almost 250 thousand words, we identify 16 main topics covering areas from healthcare and education through economics to elections and legislation. We find that the topic of foreign affairs has gained in popularity over time the most (from around 4.5% at the beginning to more than 10% starting from 2014). Another topic, consistently gaining weight in the president's statements, is related to solving particular problems of the general public (from 8% to 12.5%) and is significantly correlated with subsequent decrease in the country's unemployment (Pearson's correlation coefficient -0.502). We also find that when the government's support is decreasing, Putin tends to discuss more socially significant topics (e.g., inflation, healthcare, Pearson's coef. around -0.5), while when the support is rising, he speaks more about foreign affairs (Pearson's coef. 0.773). Our study provides first evidence that Vladimir Putin may adapt the content of his phone-in meetings to gather public support and influence the country's economy.



中文翻译:

与弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在全国范围内通话的话题及其对公众支持和俄罗斯经济的作用

国家领导人的讲话会影响他们的公众支持并刺激国家经济的变化。迄今为止,建立这些关系的研究很少,也没有对弗拉基米尔普京的地址进行研究。在本文中,我们通过分析普京在全国范围内的电话会议(这是他向公众发表演讲的一种特殊的年度形式)来填补这一知识空白,并使用结构化主题建模来研究他们的主题。此外,我们将这些主题与总统和政府的公众认可以及一些俄罗斯宏观经济指标(如通货膨胀和预算支出)联系起来。根据我们包含 1938 条回复和近 25 万字的数据,我们确定了 16 个主要主题,涵盖从医疗保健和教育到经济学再到选举和立法等领域。我们发现,随着时间的推移,外交话题的受欢迎程度最高(从开始时的 4.5% 左右到 2014 年开始超过 10%)。另一个话题,在总统的声明中不断增加,与解决公众的特定问题有关(从 8% 到 12.5%),并与随后该国失业率的下降显着相关(皮尔逊相关系数 -0.502)。我们还发现,当政府的支持度下降时,普京倾向于讨论更多具有社会意义的话题(例如,通货膨胀、医疗保健、皮尔逊系数在 -0.5 左右),而当支持度上升时,他更多地谈论外交事务(皮尔森系数) . 0.773)。

更新日期:2022-07-29
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