Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species,Global Change Biology

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Contrasting seasonal effects of climate change influence density in a cold-adapted species
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-28 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16352
Alexander V Kumar _{1,

2} , Marketa Zimova ₃ , Thomas E Martin ₄ , L Scott Mills _{2,

5}

Affiliation

Many ecological processes are profoundly influenced by abiotic factors, such as temperature and snow. However, despite strong evidence linking shifts in these ecological processes to corresponding shifts in abiotic factors driven by climate change, the mechanisms connecting population size to season-specific climate drivers are little understood. Using a 21-year dataset and a Bayesian state space model, we identified biologically informed seasonal climate covariates that influenced densities of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), a cold-adapted boreal herbivore. We found that snow and temperature had strong but conflicting season-dependent effects. Reduced snow duration in spring and fall and warmer summers were associated with lowered hare density, whereas warmer winters were associated with increased density. When modeled simultaneously and under two climate change scenarios, the negative effects of reduced fall and spring snow duration and warmer summers overwhelm the positive effect of warmer winters, producing projected population declines. Ultimately, the contrasting population-level impacts of climate change across seasons emphasize the critical need to examine the entire annual climate cycle to understand potential long-term population consequences of climate change.

中文翻译：

对比气候变化的季节性影响影响冷适应物种的密度

许多生态过程深受非生物因素的影响，例如温度和雪。然而，尽管有强有力的证据表明这些生态过程的变化与气候变化驱动的非生物因素的相应变化有关，但人们对将人口规模与特定季节的气候驱动因素联系起来的机制知之甚少。使用 21 年的数据集和贝叶斯状态空间模型，我们确定了影响雪鞋野兔 ( Lepus americanus ) 密度的生物学信息季节性气候协变量), 一种适应寒冷的北方食草动物。我们发现雪和温度具有强烈但相互矛盾的季节依赖效应。春季和秋季降雪持续时间的减少以及夏季变暖与野兔密度降低有关，而冬季变暖则与野兔密度增加有关。当在两种气候变化情景下同时建模时，秋季和春季降雪持续时间减少以及夏季变暖的负面影响压倒了冬季变暖的积极影响，导致预计人口下降。最终，不同季节气候变化对人口水平的影响形成鲜明对比，强调迫切需要检查整个年度气候周期，以了解气候变化对人口的潜在长期影响。

更新日期：2022-07-28

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