Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding,Global Change Biology

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Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-28 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16358
Huanjiong Wang ₁ , Junhu Dai _{1,

2,

3} , Josep Peñuelas _{4,

5} , Quansheng Ge _{1,

2} , Yongshuo H Fu ₆ , Chaoyang Wu ₁

Affiliation

Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as more than 99% of time series exhibited a negative relationship between CA and FR. The reduction in chilling linked to winter warming from 1951 to 2014 could offset about one half of the spring phenological advance caused by the increase in forcing. In future warming scenarios, if the same model is used and a linear, stable correlation between CA and FR is assumed, declining chilling will continuously offset the advance of leaf-out to a similar degree. Our study stresses the importance of assessing the antagonistic effects of winter and spring warming on leaf-out phenology.

中文翻译：

冬季变暖抵消了春季变暖对叶片展开的一半影响

冬季温度相关的寒冷和春季温度相关的强迫是影响温带物种出叶日期的两个主要环境线索。冬季变暖导致的低温不足会在多大程度上减缓对春季变暖的物候反应仍不清楚。利用欧洲 16 种树种的 27,071 个退叶日期时间序列，我们构建了一个基于冷积累 (CA) 和退叶强迫要求 (FR) 之间的线性或指数函数的物候模型。我们进一步使用物候模型来量化寒冷和强迫对过去和未来春季物候变化的相对贡献。结果表明，自然条件下冷量减少对落叶期的延缓作用普遍存在，因为超过 99% 的时间序列表现出 CA 和 FR 之间的负相关关系。从 1951 年到 2014 年，与冬季变暖相关的寒冷减少可以抵消由强迫增加引起的春季物候进展的大约一半。在未来的变暖情景中，如果使用相同的模型并假设 CA 和 FR 之间存在线性、稳定的相关性，那么降低的冷量将在类似程度上持续抵消叶出的提前。我们的研究强调了评估冬季和春季变暖对叶片物候的拮抗作用的重要性。假设 CA 和 FR 之间有稳定的相关性，降低的冷量将持续抵消叶出的提前到类似程度。我们的研究强调了评估冬季和春季变暖对叶片物候的拮抗作用的重要性。假设 CA 和 FR 之间有稳定的相关性，降低的冷量将持续抵消叶出的提前到类似程度。我们的研究强调了评估冬季和春季变暖对叶片物候的拮抗作用的重要性。

更新日期：2022-07-28

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