Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Sphagnum mosses (peat mosses) are considered to be the peatland ecosystem engineers and contribute to the carbon accumulation in the peatland ecosystems. As cold-adapted species, the dominance of Sphagnum mosses in peatlands will be threatened by climate warming. The response of Sphagnum mosses to climate change is closely related to the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. However, the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Sphagnum mosses on a global scale is poorly understood. To predict the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of Sphagnum mosses, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographic distribution of six Sphagnum species that dominate peatlands in the future (2050 and 2070) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and topsoil calcium carbonate are the main factors affecting the habitat availability of Sphagnum mosses. As the climate warms, Sphagnum mosses tend to migrate northward. The suitable habitat and abundance of Sphagnum mosses increase extensively in the high-latitude boreal peatland (north of 50°N) and decrease on a large scale beyond the high-latitude boreal peatland. The southern edge of boreal peatlands would experience the greatest decline in the suitable habitat and richness of Sphagnum mosses with the temperature rising and would be a risk area for the transition from carbon sink to carbon source. The spatial–temporal pattern changes of Sphagnum mosses simulated in this study provide a reference for the development of management and conservation strategies for Sphagnum bogs.

中文翻译：

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气候变化会导致全球泥炭地扩张还是收缩？来自泥炭藓栖息地转变模式的证据

泥炭地在全球碳循环中发挥着至关重要的作用。泥炭藓（泥炭藓）被认为是泥炭地生态系统工程师，有助于泥炭地生态系统中的碳积累。作为适应寒冷的物种，泥炭藓在泥炭地的主导地位将受到气候变暖的威胁。泥炭藓对气候变化的响应与泥炭地碳通量的未来轨迹密切相关。然而，人们对气候变化对全球范围内泥炭藓栖息地适宜性的影响知之甚少。预测气候变化对泥炭藓全球分布的潜在影响苔藓，我们使用 MaxEnt 模型预测了在两种温室气体排放情景（SSP1-2.6 和 SSP5-8.5）下未来（2050 年和 2070 年）主导泥炭地的六种泥炭藓物种的潜在地理分布。结果表明，最冷季平均气温、最干月降水量和表土碳酸钙是影响泥炭藓生境有效性的主要因素。随着气候变暖，泥炭藓倾向于向北迁移。泥炭藓的适宜栖息地和丰度苔藓在高纬度北方泥炭地（北纬 50°以北）广泛增加，在高纬度北方泥炭地以外大规模减少。随着气温升高，北方泥炭地南缘的适宜生境和泥炭藓丰富度下降幅度最大，将成为碳汇向碳源转变的风险区。本研究模拟的泥炭藓时空格局变化为泥炭藓沼泽管理和保护策略的制定提供了参考。