Objective

This study analyses the effects of the openings of new metro and urban train stations on crime rates in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo during the period from 2007 to 2016.

Methods

We conducted a Difference-in-Differences with Propensity Score Matching in quarterly geocoded data of crimes reports, aggregated in census tracts. We also investigate whether the effect varies with neighborhood income and overtime.

Results

The results were subdivided by the census tract’s income. Regarding all the treated census tracts, the count of crime reports increased 17.1% since 2007 in areas within 250m from the stations. For the wealthiest census tracts, we found a 30.4% impact. The effects on census tracts below the median income were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

Specific security policies should be near new metro and urban train stations, especially in the wealthiest districts.

中文翻译：

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轨道交通对犯罪的影响：来自圣保罗新车站的证据

客观的

本研究分析了 2007 年至 2016 年期间新地铁和城市火车站的开放对圣保罗都会区犯罪率的影响。

方法

我们对犯罪报告的季度地理编码数据进行了差异中的差异与倾向得分匹配，这些数据汇总在人口普查区域中。我们还调查了这种影响是否随社区收入和加班时间而变化。

结果

结果按人口普查区的收入细分。对于所有经过处理的人口普查区域，自 2007 年以来，距离车站 250m 范围内的犯罪报告数量增加了 17.1%。对于最富裕的人口普查区，我们发现了 30.4% 的影响。对低于中等收入的人口普查区的影响没有统计学意义。

结论

具体的安全政策应该在新的地铁站和城市火车站附近，特别是在最富裕的地区。