Cybersecurity risk modeling and pricing are becoming a spotlight in actuarial science and operational research. This paper pertains to the analysis of the cybersecurity risks involved in the fog computing technology which has been intensively deployed in assorted Internet of Things (IoT) applications. To this end, a class of structural models are established to study the inherent cyber risk propagation process. Under the smart home applications, we manage to compute the compromise probabilities of individual nodes explicitly. Applications of the proposed structural models in the context of cyber insurance pricing are thoroughly explored. Finally, we propose an interval method for estimating the compromise probabilities of fog network’s elements, which can be used to efficiently identify weak nodes for cybersecurity risk management.

网络安全风险建模和定价正成为精算学和运筹学的焦点。本文分析了广泛部署在各种物联网 (IoT) 应用中的雾计算技术所涉及的网络安全风险。为此，建立了一类结构模型来研究固有的网络风险传播过程。在智能家居应用下，我们设法明确计算各个节点的折衷概率。深入探讨了所提出的结构模型在网络保险定价背景下的应用。最后，我们提出了一种区间方法来估计雾网络元素的妥协概率，可用于有效识别网络安全风险管理的薄弱节点。