Ocean warming influences tropical cyclone (TC) destructive parameters and hence their guidance certainly helps the disaster management agencies to reduce the damage. The present study modelled the sensitivity of TC size, intensity, rainfall, and destructive potential parameters under various ocean warming conditions. A recent extremely severe cyclonic storm FANI (2019) over the Bay of Bengal is chosen for this purpose. The 9-km grid-spacing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed by altering the default sea surface temperature (SST) by −1 °C, +1 °C, +2 °C and, +3 °C respectively along with the control run. The model simulations revealed that ocean warming causes the FANI cyclone to turn northeastward direction. The observed changes of tangential wind speed due to large sea surface enthalpy fluxes associated with ocean warming result in TC size changes and then guide the cyclone to northeastward movement. The radius of 34-knot wind (R34) is more sensitive to the SST warming compared to the radius of maximum winds. The modelled R34 values ranged between ~180–600 km against observations (~100–400 km) during the TC life period. The increased tangential wind speeds (~50–60 m s⁻¹) and convective updrafts (~1.3–1.5 m s⁻¹) in the TC area are responsible for TC intensity and size changes. A linear and exponential growth is seen for the TC destructive potential indicators those estimated using TC intensity and R34 values. The SST increase could result in peak heavy rainfall (>65 mm day⁻¹) in the TC inner-core region, especially the rear sector. The categorical rainfall distribution analysis also proved that heavy rainfall areas extend to greater distances (>300 km) around the TC center with SST warming. The study helps in assessing the hydro-meteorological destruction associated with the TCs in the future warming climate.

海洋变暖会影响热带气旋 (TC) 的破坏性参数，因此它们的指导肯定有助于灾害管理机构减少损失。本研究模拟了各种海洋变暖条件下 TC 大小、强度、降雨和破坏性潜在参数的敏感性。为此目的选择了最近在孟加拉湾上空发生的极其严重的气旋风暴 FANI（2019 年）。通过将默认海面温度 (SST) 分别更改 -1 °C、+1 °C、+2 °C 和 +3 °C 来执行 9 公里网格间距天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型模拟随着控制运行。模型模拟显示，海洋变暖导致 FANI 气旋转向东北方向。由于与海洋变暖相关的大海面焓通量导致的切向风速变化导致TC尺寸变化，然后引导气旋向东北运动。与最大风速半径相比，34 节风速半径（R34）对 SST 变暖更为敏感。模拟的 R34 值在 TC 寿命期间与观测值（~100-400 公里）之间的范围在 ~180-600 公里之间。增加的切向风速（~50-60 m s^-1 ) 和对流上升气流 (~1.3–1.5 m s ^-1 ) 在 TC 区域是造成 TC 强度和大小变化的原因。使用 TC 强度和 R34 值估计的 TC 破坏性潜力指标呈线性和指数增长。SST 的增加可能导致TC 内核区域，尤其是后部区域出现峰值强降雨（>65 mm day ^{-1 ）。}分类降雨分布分析也证明，随着海温变暖，强降雨区向台风中心周围延伸到更远的距离（> 300 km）。该研究有助于评估未来气候变暖中与 TC 相关的水文气象破坏。