ABSTRACT

The state of Paraná is one of the largest corn producers in Brazil, cultivating in two growing seasons. This study evaluated bivariate correlations between precipitation and the second-crop corn yield between the first 10 days of April and the first 10 days of October using spatial statistics. The spatial analysis of yield was evaluated using geostatistical models and validated by cross-validation. Spatial analysis was performed using the local indicator of spatial association and a cross-semivariogram, and the co-dispersion coefficient was used to validate the correlation between variables. Cross-validation identified the exponential model as the best fit, indicating a spatial dependence of 317.26 km. Spatial associations between municipalities were significant throughout the state of Paraná, Brazil. The cross-semivariogram allowed fitting the wave, spherical, Gaussian, and exponential models, with a spatial correlation of 37.04 to 570.38 km between the precipitations and yield. Moreover, the co-dispersion coefficient validated the correlation between the two variables for all 10-day periods.

摘要

巴拉那州是巴西最大的玉米生产国之一，分两个生长季节种植。本研究使用空间统计数据评估了 4 月前 10 天和 10 月前 10 天之间降水和二季玉米产量之间的双变量相关性。使用地质统计模型评估产量的空间分析，并通过交叉验证进行验证。使用空间关联的局部指标和交叉半变异函数进行空间分析，并使用共分散系数来验证变量之间的相关性。交叉验证确定指数模型为最佳拟合，表明空间依赖性为 317.26 公里。在整个巴西巴拉那州，城市之间的空间关联非常重要。交叉半变异函数允许拟合波浪、球面、高斯和指数模型，降水和产量之间的空间相关性为 37.04 至 570.38 km。此外，共分散系数验证了两个变量在所有 10 天期间的相关性。