Does war affect support for incumbent leaders and parties? The literature is divided with studies reporting negative, positive, or null-effects. Many studies analyze the consequences of foreign intervention, and less is known about the political costs of wars fought close to home. Building on theories of retrospective voting, we theorize that wars inform voters about leader’s competence, and in turn affect mass attitudes and behaviors. Leveraging the unexpected onset of the 1973 Yom Kippur war which interrupted an ongoing Israeli public opinion poll, and voting records from four national elections linked with Israeli military fatality data, we demonstrate that despite the ultimate military victory, the war and its casualties reduced support for incumbent parties and leaders, and increased support for the opposition. By moving beyond foreign interventions, we provide strong evidence that wars over a country’s core territory can be politically costly for incumbent leaders and parties.

战争会影响对现任领导人和政党的支持吗？文献分为报告负面、正面或无效效应的研究。许多研究分析了外国干预的后果，而对在本土附近进行的战争的政治成本知之甚少。基于回顾性投票理论，我们认为战争让选民了解领导者的能力，进而影响群众的态度和行为。利用 1973 年赎罪日战争的意外爆发，该战争中断了正在进行的以色列民意调查，以及与以色列军人死亡数据相关的四次全国选举的投票记录，我们证明，尽管最终取得了军事胜利，但战争及其伤亡人数减少了对现任政党和领导人，并增加了对反对派的支持。