Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models,Hydrological Processes

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Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-07-19 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14645
Salah Basem Ajjur ₁ , Sami G. Al‐Ghamdi ₁

Affiliation

This study aims to show how future groundwater recharge (GR) simulations in arid areas respond to uncertainty in climatic parameters—a question, if explored, that bridges a gap in water resources management plans. To this aim, eight regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected four climatic parameters [surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and potential evapotranspiration (PET)] over Qatar during the period of 2071–2100. Using topographic and groundwater data, a physically based water balance model was built to simulate future GR under these 16 scenarios. Results show high uncertainty in climatic parameters. Relative to the reference period (1976–2005), values varied under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) from +1.8 to +3.4 (+3.8 to +5.6)^°C for average temperature, −48% to +15% (−60% to +6%) for annual precipitation, −0.23 to +0.1 (−0.27 to +0.04) m/hour for wind speed, and from −5.7 to +12.8 (+4.3 to +17) mm for annual PET. Uncertainty in climatic parameters caused great uncertainty in future GR estimations. During the late 21^st century, GR simulations varied from −67% to +64% with an average value of −20% under RCP4.5, and from −81% to +8% with an average value of −36% under RCP8.5. The greatest uncertainty resulted from the driving model, whereas the choice of emission scenario had a secondary impact. Since GR is a critical component of feeding arid aquifers, the study's findings emphasize the importance of both considering the uncertainty associated with climatic parameters and the regional climatic information chosen.

中文翻译：

从区域气候模型量化未来地下水补给模拟的不确定性

本研究旨在展示干旱地区未来的地下水补给 (GR) 模拟如何应对气候参数的不确定性——如果探讨这个问题，将弥补水资源管理计划中的差距。为此，在两个代表性浓度路径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下的八个区域气候模型（RCM）预测了卡塔尔在2071-2100 年。使用地形和地下水数据，建立了一个基于物理的水平衡模型来模拟这 16 种情景下的未来 GR。结果显示气候参数的高度不确定性。相对于参考期（1976-2005），RCP4.5（RCP8.5）下的值从+1.8到+3.4（+3.8到+5.6）^°平均温度为 C，年降水量为 -48% 至 +15%（-60% 至 +6%），风速为 -0.23 至 +0.1（-0.27 至 +0.04）米/小时，-5.7 至 +年度 PET 为 12.8（+4.3 至 +17）毫米。气候参数的不确定性导致未来 GR 估计存在很大的不确定性。在 21^世纪后期，GR 模拟在 RCP4.5 下从 -67% 到 +64% 变化，平均值为 -20%，在 RCP8 下从 -81% 到 +8% 变化，平均值为 -36% .5. 最大的不确定性来自驱动模型，而排放情景的选择具有次要影响。由于 GR 是喂养干旱含水层的关键组成部分，因此该研究的结果强调了考虑与气候参数相关的不确定性和所选区域气候信息的重要性。

更新日期：2022-07-19

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