Several species of fish in large lakes and marine environments have a pelagic larval stage, and are subject to variable transport that can ultimately regulate survival and recruitment success. Alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, are subject to transport by complex coastal currents during their pelagic larval stage (~ 30 d). We assessed backward-trajectory simulations, consisting of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model linked to the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, to estimate likely hatch locations of aged larval alewife collected from locations on both the eastern and western sides of Lake Michigan during July 2015. We used four deployments of three satellite-tracked drifter buoys in coastal waters to assess model skill in estimating the origin of a drifter from its final location. We found that the trajectories of drifters varied greatly, depending on wind events and associated coastal transport processes, including upwelling/downwelling and coastal jet currents. In 2 of 12 cases, the backward trajectory simulations failed to predict the drifter origin, associated with transport of 170 km in a narrow coastal jet current. In the remaining 10 cases, the known drifter origin was within 3.5 km of the spatial patch of predicted possible origins for a scenario of horizontal diffusivity (188 m² s⁻¹) consistent with the offshore model grid resolution. Modeled backward trajectories estimated that alewife originated from the same side of the lake where they were collected, within ~ 100 km of the collection site. Our paper demonstrates the utility of hydrodynamic models to estimate a region of origin for aged larval fish.

中文翻译：

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使用流体动力学和拉格朗日粒子分散模型预测密歇根湖的幼虫 alewife 运输

大型湖泊和海洋环境中的几种鱼类具有远洋幼虫阶段，并且受到可变运输的影响，最终可以调节生存和招募成功。Alewife，Alosa pseudoharengus, 在其远洋幼虫阶段 (~ 30 d) 受到复杂的海岸流的运输。我们评估了反向轨迹模拟，包括与有限体积社区海洋模型相关的拉格朗日粒子扩散模型，以估计 2015 年 7 月期间从密歇根湖东侧和西侧的位置收集的老年 alive 幼虫的可能孵化位置。我们在沿海水域使用了四次部署三个卫星跟踪的漂流者浮标，以评估模型从最终位置估计漂流者起源的技能。我们发现漂流者的轨迹变化很大，这取决于风事件和相关的沿海运输过程，包括上升流/下降流和沿海急流。在 12 个案例中的 2 个案例中，后向轨迹模拟未能预测漂移者的起源，与狭窄的沿海急流中 170 公里的运输有关。在其余 10 个案例中，已知的漂流物起源在水平扩散率情景（188 m²  s ^-1 ) 与海上模型网格分辨率一致。模拟的向后轨迹估计，alewife 起源于收集它们的湖的同一侧，距离收集点约 100 公里。我们的论文展示了水动力模型在估计年老幼鱼来源区域方面的实用性。