This paper proposes a new method to estimate the percentage of load carried by the gob in underground coal mines using a new parameter that introduces the site-specific overburden geology. The new parameter was defined as the total strong layer thickness (t_str) that represents the strength and stiffness of the overburden with a single value. Twelve field measurement case studies from 11 different U.S. longwall mines with different overburden geologies were used to develop the new methodology. 2D numerical models of these case studies (and additional parametric runs with different panel widths) were verified against field measurements such as surface subsidence and stress. Statistical analyses using the model results were conducted for a loading model with the new t_str parameter as one of the variables. The new methodology was found to have a coefficient of determination (R²) of 85% when compared to the field measurements and the parametric models. The method was then tested for practical implementation for pillar design. The percentages of load carried by the gob as estimated by the new method were implemented into the LaModel program, that is commonly used in the coal industry. The results obtained from LaModel were compared to the available field stress measurements, and the new method implemented into LaModel was found to give successful results.

本文提出了一种新方法来估计地下煤矿采空区承载的负载百分比，该方法使用引入了特定地点覆盖地质的新参数。新参数被定义为总强层厚度 ( t _str )，它以单个值表示覆盖层的强度和刚度。使用来自 11 个不同上覆地质条件的美国长壁矿山的 12 个现场测量案例研究来开发新方法。这些案例研究的 2D 数值模型（以及具有不同面板宽度的附加参数运行）已针对现场测量（例如地表沉降和应力）进行了验证。使用模型结果对具有新t _{str的加载模型进行统计分析}参数作为变量之一。与现场测量和参数模型相比，新方法的确定系数 ( R ^{2 ) 为 85%。}然后测试该方法以用于支柱设计的实际实施。采用新方法估算的采空区负载百分比已被应用到煤炭行业常用的 LaModel 程序中。将从 LaModel 获得的结果与可用的场应力测量值进行比较，发现在 LaModel 中实施的新方法可以产生成功的结果。