The Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem is extremely sensitive to climatic variability and other anthropogenic perturbances ascribed to biomass extraction by fisheries. An Ecopath with Ecosim model calibrated for the 1996–2012 period was projected into the future (2100) under three different climate projections for environmental variables (sea ice extent, open water area and chlorophyll-a concentration) and three Antarctic krill fishery scenarios (no-take, constant and decadal increase until doubling of the current catches). The relative impact of different drivers controlling Antarctic food web dynamics was evaluated with a sensitivity analysis and the temporal variability of several functional group and ecosystem indicators. Under these scenarios, environmental variability resulted in a greater impact on the Antarctic food web in 2100 projections compared with the krill fishery. Chlorophyll-a biomass strongly influenced the temporal variability of functional groups, suggesting predominant bottom-up control on the food web. An alternative food web structure was observed in 2100, with a marked decline in krill population biomass (from<50% to near extinction depending on the environmental projection) and an increase in salps and other zooplankton groups. A reduction in the biomass of sea ice and krill-dependent predators, such as Adélie and chinstrap penguins and crabeater seals, was also observed. The absence of functions modelling the spatial and seasonal variability of the krill fishery might cause an underestimation of its ecosystem impacts. This work provides useful insights into the dynamic responses of the Antarctic food web under likely environmental projections and highlights critical points that need to be addressed to improve the understanding and parametrization of the Antarctic food web to anticipate future variability.

南极半岛生态系统对气候变化和渔业提取生物量引起的其他人为干扰极为敏感。根据环境变量（海冰范围、开阔水域和叶绿素-a 浓度）的三种不同气候预测和三种南极磷虾渔业情景（无- 捕获量、恒定和十年增加，直到当前捕获量翻倍）。通过敏感性分析和几个功能组和生态系统指标的时间变异性评估了控制南极食物网动态的不同驱动因素的相对影响。在这些场景下，在 2100 年的预测中，与磷虾渔业相比，环境变化对南极食物网的影响更大。叶绿素-a 生物量强烈影响功能组的时间变异性，表明对食物网的主要自下而上控制。2100 年观察到另一种食物网结构，磷虾种群生物量显着下降（根据环境预测从<50% 到接近灭绝），鲑鱼和其他浮游动物群增加。还观察到海冰和依赖磷虾的捕食者（例如阿德利企鹅和帽带企鹅以及食蟹海豹）的生物量减少。缺乏模拟磷虾渔业空间和季节变化的函数可能会导致对其生态系统影响的低估。