Purpose

Under the new media environment, while enjoying the convenience brought by the propagation of public opinion information (referred to as public opinion), learning the evolution process of public opinion and strengthening the governance of the spreading of public opinion are of great significance to promoting economic development and maintaining social stability as well as effectively resisting the negative impact of its propagation.

Design/methodology/approach

Thinking about the results of empirical research and bibliometric analysis, this paper focused on introducing key factors such as information content, social strengthening effects, etc., from both internal and external levels, dynamically designed public opinion spreading rules and netizens' state transition probability. Subsequently, simulation experiments were conducted to discuss the spreading law of public opinion in two types of online social networks and to identify the key factors which influencing its evolution process. Based on the experimental results, the governance strategies for the propagation of negative public opinion were proposed finally.

Findings

The results show that compared with other factors, the propagation of public opinion depends more on the attributes of the information content itself. For the propagation of negative public opinion, on the one hand, the regulators should adopt flexible guidance strategy to establish a public opinion supervision mechanism and autonomous system with universal participation. On the other hand, they still need to adopt rigid governance strategy, focusing on the governance timing and netizens with higher network status to forestall the wide-diffusion of public opinion.

Practical implications

The research conclusions put forward the enlightenment for the governance of public opinion in management practice, and also provided decision-making reference for the regulators to reasonably respond to the propagation of public opinion.

Originality/value

Our research proposed a research framework for the discussion of public opinion propagation process and had important practical guiding significance for the governance of public opinion propagation.

中文翻译：

---

内外因素共同作用下的舆情信息传播与治理研究

目的

新媒体环境下，在享受舆情信息（简称舆情）传播带来的便利的同时，了解舆情的演变过程，加强对舆情传播的治理，对促进经济发展具有重要意义。发展和维护社会稳定，有效抵御其传播带来的负面影响。

设计/方法/途径

结合实证研究和文献计量分析的结果，本文重点引入信息内容、社会强化效应等关键因素，从内部和外部两个层面动态设计舆情传播规则和网民状态转移概率。随后，通过仿真实验探讨了舆情在两类在线社交网络中的传播规律，找出了影响其演化过程的关键因素。最后基于实验结果提出了负面舆情传播的治理策略。

发现

结果表明，与其他因素相比，舆情的传播更多地取决于信息内容本身的属性。对于负面舆论的传播，一方面，监管者要采取灵活的引导策略，建立全民参与的舆情监督机制和自治制度。另一方面，他们仍需要采取刚性治理策略，重点关注治理时机和网络地位较高的网民，以防止舆论的广泛传播。

实际影响

研究结论对管理实践中的舆情治理提出了启示，也为监管部门合理应对舆情传播提供了决策参考。

原创性/价值

我们的研究提出了一个讨论舆情传播过程的研究框架，对舆论传播治理具有重要的现实指导意义。