Simulations of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from CORDEX-SEA were bias-corrected using the quantile mapping (QM) method to examine the possible ranges of future mean precipitation and extreme index changes over Southeast Asia (SEA). Eleven rainfall indices including total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum one day precipitation (RX1day), the maximum number of consecutive dry days (MCDD), intensity of very wet days (R95pTOT) and the frequency of heavy rainfall days (R20mm) were considered. The QM procedure largely reduced the biases and inter-model variations in the historical period. For future projections, some QM modifications can be found but these were season and location dependent. The projected large changes of mean seasonal precipitation, especially over Indochina, were slightly magnified after the correction. Generally, the projected bias-corrected ensemble mean (ENSMEAN) indicated increased mean rainfall during boreal winters in mainland SEA by as much as 30% depending on the projection periods. During the boreal summer, mean rainfall in the maritime continent was projected to decrease by as much as −30% in some areas in Indonesia. In summary, the possible ranges of projected changes of extreme indices are dependent on the type of indices, scenarios and seasons. For JJA, the possible range over the entire region is between −40% and 60%. For DJF, the possible ranges are between −20% and 60% and −20%–20% over the mainland Indochina and Maritime Continent, respectively.

使用分位数映射 (QM) 方法对来自 CORDEX-SEA 的七个区域气候模型 (RCM) 的模拟进行了偏差校正，以检查东南亚 (SEA) 未来平均降水量和极端指数变化的可能范围。考虑了总降水量（PRCPTOT）、最大单日降水量（RX1day）、最大连续干旱日数（MCDD）、极湿日强度（R95pTOT）和强降雨日数（R20mm）等11个降雨指数。QM 程序在很大程度上减少了历史时期的偏差和模型间变化。对于未来的预测，可以找到一些 QM 修改，但这些修改取决于季节和位置。平均季节性降水量的预计较大变化，特别是在印度支那上空，在修正后略有放大。一般来说，预测的偏差校正集合平均值 (ENSMEAN) 表明，根据预测周期，SEA 大陆的北方冬季平均降雨量增加了 30%。在北方夏季，预计印度尼西亚某些地区海洋大陆的平均降雨量将减少 -30%。综上所述，极端指数预测变化的可能范围取决于指数类型、情景和季节。对于 JJA，整个区域的可能范围在 -40% 到 60% 之间。对于 DJF，可能的范围分别在印度支那大陆和海洋大陆的 -20% 和 60% 和 -20%–20% 之间。在印度尼西亚的一些地区，海洋大陆的平均降雨量预计将减少 -30%。综上所述，极端指数预测变化的可能范围取决于指数类型、情景和季节。对于 JJA，整个区域的可能范围在 -40% 到 60% 之间。对于 DJF，可能的范围分别在印度支那大陆和海洋大陆的 -20% 和 60% 和 -20%–20% 之间。在印度尼西亚的一些地区，海洋大陆的平均降雨量预计将减少 -30%。综上所述，极端指数预测变化的可能范围取决于指数类型、情景和季节。对于 JJA，整个区域的可能范围在 -40% 到 60% 之间。对于 DJF，可能的范围分别在印度支那大陆和海洋大陆的 -20% 和 60% 和 -20%–20% 之间。