On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for infrastructure construction, primarily ice roads and industrial operations. However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km² Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May–August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions, and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, one to three summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (−56% to −69%) than LWW alone (−44% to −58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW under average climate conditions resulted in a new equilibrium in low flow and seasonal runoff after 3 years that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced watershed contributing area (54% of total watershed area), and limited fish passage of 20 days (vs. 6 days under control conditions) throughout summer. Our results highlight that, even under current average climatic conditions, LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial LWWs.

中文翻译：

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阿拉斯加北极沿海平原苔原湖取水和季节性气候极端情景的模拟径流响应

在阿拉斯加北部（美国）的北极沿海平原（ACP），永久冻土和丰富的地表水储存定义了流域水文过程。在过去的几十年中，ACP 景观经历了极端气候事件，并增加了用于基础设施建设的湖泊取水量（LWW），主要是冰路和工业运营。然而，它们对水流的潜在（综合）影响相对来说还没有得到充分探索。在这里，我们将基于过程的、空间分布的水文和热水平衡模拟模型（10 m 空间分辨率）应用于 30 km ²Crea Creek 流域位于 ACP 上。评估了记录的季节性气候极端事件和 LWW 对季节性径流（5 月至 8 月）的影响，包括最小 7 天平均流量 (MQ7)、MQ7 恢复到扰动前条件的时间，以及阻止鱼道。低降雨情景（正常情况的 21%，连续一到三个夏季）导致 MQ7 的减少（-56% 到 -69%）比单独的 LWW（-44% 到 -58%）更大。平均气候条件下长达十年的连续 LWW 导致了 3 年后低流量和季节性径流的新平衡，其中包括断开的河流网络、流域贡献面积减少（占流域总面积的 54%）和 20 条鱼类通道受限天（与控制条件下的 6 天相比）。我们的结果强调，即使在目前的平均气候条件下，LWW 也不会被土地管理条例中目前假设的同年融雪抵消。因此，有效的土地管理将受益于考虑气候变化和工业 LWW 的综合影响。