The Upper Geyser Basin at Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) harbors the greatest concentration of geysers worldwide. Research suggests that individual geysers are not isolated but rather are hydraulically connected in the subsurface with other geysers and thermal springs. To quantify such connections, we combined techniques from machine learning, causal inference, and dynamical systems to characterize the collective eruptive behavior of a set of 10 geysers over 18 months (April 2007 – September 2008) focusing on geyser-geyser interactions. Model predictions were up to 15 times more accurate when we sought to predict a geyser's eruption time series based on outflow channel temperatures from the network than based on its own time series alone, suggesting the existence of a complex interconnected subsurface groundwater system. On average, cone-type geysers had larger impacts on other geysers than did fountain-type geysers. Similarly, cone-type geysers were on average more insulated from other geysers. However, substantial unexplained variation remained after considering the cone versus fountain dichotomy. Distance between geysers also affected interactions: nearby geysers had stronger effects on focal geysers than did geysers located farther away. Collectively, results support the hypothesis of geyser interdependence at timescales of 5 min–10 days. Our analyses highlight the existence of quantifiable geyser-to-geyser interactions that can be resolved through pairwise and system-level analyses. These findings emphasize the subsurface interconnectedness of thermal features, provide information relevant to visitor experiences in Yellowstone National Park, and suggest strategies for exploring patterns of interdependence that may exist among other episodic geological phenomena.

中文翻译：

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量化黄石国家公园上间歇泉盆地间歇泉喷发的相互依赖性

黄石国家公园（美国怀俄明州）的上间歇泉盆地拥有全世界最集中的间歇泉。研究表明，单个间歇泉并不是孤立的，而是在地下与其他间歇泉和温泉水力相连。为了量化这种联系，我们结合了机器学习、因果推理和动力系统的技术来描述一组 10 个间歇泉在 18 个月（2007 年 4 月至 2008 年 9 月）期间的集体喷发行为，重点是间歇泉-间歇泉的相互作用。当我们试图基于网络的流出通道温度预测间歇泉的喷发时间序列时，模型预测的准确度比仅基于其自身的时间序列高出 15 倍，这表明存在一个复杂的相互连接的地下地下水系统。一般，锥形间歇泉对其他间歇泉的影响比喷泉式间歇泉要大。同样，锥形间歇泉平均与其他间歇泉更加绝缘。然而，在考虑了锥形与喷泉二分法之后，仍然存在大量无法解释的变化。间歇泉之间的距离也影响相互作用：附近的间歇泉对焦点间歇泉的影响比距离较远的间歇泉更强。总的来说，结果支持间歇泉在 5 分钟到 10 天的时间尺度上相互依赖的假设。我们的分析强调了可通过成对和系统级分析解决的可量化间歇泉间相互作用的存在。这些发现强调了热特征的地下相互联系，提供了与黄石国家公园游客体验相关的信息，